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 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

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ValdisFFS



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PostSubject: Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis    Sun Jun 12, 2016 4:58 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- technical analysis.

13.06.2016

Euro

General overview

The euro got under pressure when Mario Draghi (the European Central Bank Governor) warned the market that the weak economic growth in the Eurozone could lead to a "long-term losses."

Current situation

The pair EUR/USD spent almost the whole Friday at the level of 1.1300. The pair consolidated after a sharp decrease that had happened a day earlier. The EUR/USD returned to a decrease at the American session and ended the trading week in the red zone at the mark of 1.1250. The resistance is at 1.1300, the
support is at 1.1250.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram is below its signal line. MACD decreased, that is a sell signal. RSI is closed to the oversold area. That is a sell signal too. The price broke through Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chat. The Moving Averages crossed each other on the 4 hour time frame, showing that the price is changing its direction.

Trading recommendations

Even though the indicators look bearish we prefer to stay away from a trading before the Fed meeting.
The market is going to be volatile that increases risks.

If we decide to sell we would wait for the price to consolidate below Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. Another sell signal is MACD in the negative area. The sellers’ target is the level 1.1200. Otherwise we would see a bounce upwards to 1.1370.



Pound

General overview

The British pound fell against the dollar due to concerns regarding the upcoming referendum on 23 rd of June. According to Timex/YouGov 43% of Britons would vote to stay in the union and 42% would leave it.

Current situation

The sellers were able to drive the pair lower. The quotes decreased and broke the levels 1.4400, 1.4320 and 1.4240. After breaking the mark 1.4240 the pound reversed some of its losses and ended the trading week at 1.4253. The resistance is at 1.4320, the support come in at 1.4240.

MACD is in the negative area. The signal line is in the histogram. MACD decreased, that is a sell signal.
RSI is in the oversold zone. The price broke Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. That is a sell signal. The price is close to the strong support at 1.4150 on the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

The price is oversold and it may bounce upwards to the strong level 1.4400. If we see the price below the support 1.4320 we would sell to 1.4150



Yen

General overview

The yen is under pressure on the eve of Japanese and the USA Central Bank meetings. The referendum in the Great Britain is another factor that pressured the yen. We believe that the industrial production and retail sales report in China may well set the tone for trading in the new week.

Current situation

The yen spent last Friday at the level 107.00. The pair remained in a range between levels of 106.60 and 107.30. The resistance is at 107.00, the support is at 106.00.

MACD indicator is in a negative area, the histogram is growing. MACD shows a convergence (that is a strong reversal signal). RSI is still close the oversold level of 30. That is a buy signal. The pair USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The pair is on its lows from 2014 at the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

The USD/JPY is still oversold and we expect a correction. Once we break above the 107.00 level, we assume that the 108.00 level will be next



CAD

General overview

On one hand Initial Jobless claims in the USA supported the dollar that grew in the USA/CAD. On the other hand the oil quotes decrease dispelled the demand for the Canadian dollar. Both these factors helped the pair to recover.

Current situation

The USD/CAD showed volatile trades last Friday. The pair fell in the European session, still sellers were not able to move the price below 1.2680. The USD/CAD quotes reversed some of the losses in the American session when the price started to grow. The trades ended at the level of 1.2780. The resistance
stands at 1.2800, the support comes in at 1.2680.

MACD is in the negative area, the histogram is growing. That is a buy signal. The indicator RSI is in the neutral area. The price is below Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The price is on the strong level from 2015 on the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

We believe the pair will correct as it is oversold and is on the strong support on the daily chart. The MACD is growing. The RSI bounced off the oversold area. In addition the price went too far from the Moving Averages and shall grow to them. We believe the pair shall reverse to 1.3000.

As an alternative scenario the pair may decrease to the round level 1.2500.



GOLD

General overview

Low expectations that the USA regulator will hike the rate this month supported the gold last week.

Current situation

The gold quotes continued their growth on Friday. The futures spent the Asian session in a correction that ended at the European one. The gold was growing and almost reached the resistance at 1280. The resistance is at 1280, the support lies at 1260.

MACD is in a positive area. The signal line is in the histogram. MACD grew on Friday that is a buy signal. RSI is in the overbought level of 70. That is a sell signal. The price is above Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200).

Trading recommendations

The gold is close to the strong resistance 1280 on the daily chart. Besides the metal is overbought. The gold may start a correction soon. The sellers’ target is the mark 1200. Nevertheless we recommend staying away from trading before the situation about the USA rates becomes clear. The gold futures may keep growing if the Fed leaves the rates unchanged



Brent

General overview

Brent fell after reaching almost yearly highs. The correction happened due to the strengthening of the dollar. However, refineries and supply disruptions from Nigeria still support the oil.

Current situation

The oil quotes stopped their growth. The Brent decreased and broke a number of levels on its way: 52.50, 51.50. The oil futures ended the week at the mark 50.50. The resistance comes in at 51.50, the support lies at 50.50.

MACD is still in the positive area, its signal line left the histogram. MACD is decreasing and that is a sell signal. RSI is still close to the oversold level of 30. The Brent quotes stopped at the 50 Moving Average that did not let the Brent to fall.

Trading recommendations

The Brent looks oversold and may slow down its decrease. The quotes shall wait for new drivers, such as the Fed meeting results and Weekly Crude Oil Stock report.

The Brent has all chances to bounce off. If the quotes bounce they will grow back to 52.50. If the prices advance lower 50.50 the decrease will be continued



Dax30

General overview

On Friday, the European stock indexes fell due to oil prices decrease and Mario Draghi’s comments.

Current situation

The index started Friday with a gap down. The price fell from 10085 to the mark 9760. The DAX broke on its way the level 1000 and touched the level of 9760. The resistance comes in at 1000, the support is at 9760.

MACD is in the negative area that is a sell signal. RSI is in the oversold area. The index fell through Moving Averages 50, 100 and 200. The level 9760 is a strong support on the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

The index is oversold. We expect a correction after a three days decrease. Shall the Dax30 increase it will grow to 1000. The support 9760 does not let the index to fall. If this level is broken DAX30 will fall deeper to 9570



SP500

General overview

The USA Bonds Market decreased its volatility before the major event in the month – the Fed meeting regarding the USA rates hike.

Current situation

The index showed active trades on Friday. Most of the day SP500 was decreasing with several stops at 2100 and 2095. The index bounced off from 2095 to 2103. However that turned out to be a short break that ended with resumption to a decrease. SP500 ended the week at 2086, the same level that a week ago.
The resistance comes at 2100, the support is at 2086.

MACD is in the negative area that is a bearish signal. RSI is close to the oversold area. The index broke through the 50 Moving Average and stopped on the 100 Moving Average.

Trading recommendations

The index is oversold so we may see a correction today. The main trend is bullish on the daily chart. Besides the price is close to the 50 Moving Average and may bounce from it as it did before. If we do not see a break below the support 2086 the price will return to the growth.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman


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ValdisFFS



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PostSubject: Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis    Tue Jun 14, 2016 12:33 am

"Fort Financial Services"- technical analysis.

13.06.2016

Euro

General overview

The risk aversion and the growth of the pair EUR/GBP supported the euro. The economic calendar was empty on Monday as a result we had a low volatile day. Now the attention of the market is turned to the Fed meeting.

Current situation

The pair EUR/USD spent almost the whole Monday at the level of 1.1250. The pair consolidated after a sharp decrease that had happened last week. The quotes began its correction during the American session. The EUR/USD managed to test 1.1300. The resistance is at 1.1300, the support is at 1.1250.

MACD is in the negative area. MACD decreased, that is a sell signal. RSI bounced from the oversold area. That is a buy signal. The rebound above 1.1250 should be considered corrective.
The 50 Moving Average is directed downwards, that is a sell signal

Trading recommendations

The market looks bearish. We feel comfortable taking short-term sell positions. Shall the pair decrease it will fall to 1.1130. We also do not exclude a corrective growth to the level 1.1370 if the price bounces upwards from the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200).



Pound

General overview

The British pound fell against the US dollar last week as investors are seriously concerned that the UK may leave the EU.

Current situation

The sellers controlled the market. The quotes continued their decrease and broke the level 1.4240 on Monday and touched 1.4150. All buyers’ attempts to grow met the serious resistance from the sellers’ part. The GBP/USD tried to recover but failed. The pair touched the resistance 1.4320 and immediately fell again below 1.4240. The resistance is at 1.4240, the support come in at 1.4150.

MACD is in the negative area. The MACD does not show any divergence. The indicator decreased, that is a sell signal. RSI is in the oversold zone. That is a buy signal. The pair consolidated below Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart that worsened its short term outlook. The price is close to the bottom of the market that was set in the beginning of 2016.

Trading recommendations

The price is oversold, the market looks bearish. The price may bounce upwards to the level 1.4320. However a drop back below 1.4150 may force the GBP/USD to resume its downward trajectory and fell below 2016 lows.



Yen

General overview

The yen strengthened against the dollar. The Japanese currency gained an additional impulse when the weak economic data in China and Japan worsened the outlook for the economic growth in Asia.

Current situation

The yen continued its decrease and tested the support at 106.00. The pair remained under pressure due to upcoming events: the Fed and BoJ meetings. The yen is in demand being a safe heaven currency. The resistance is at 107.00, the support is at 106.00.

MACD indicator is in a negative area, the histogram decreased. MACD shows a convergence (that is a strong reversal signal). RSI is close the oversold level of 30. That is a buy signal. The pair USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The pair is on its lows from 2014 at the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

The pair may decrease further as the risks kept growing in the market amid the upcoming Fed and BoJ meetings. The pair may decrease to 105.30. We still may see a rebound up to 108.00.



AUD

General overview

The AUD / USD rose when the market received positive data from China. According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the Industrial Production PMI remained unchanged, its results were higher than economists' expectations. Australian Financial markets were closed for a public holiday on Monday.

Current situation

The AUD/USD decreased last week due to the dollar strengthening. The pair started with a growth the current week. The pair could reverse some of its losses. The AUD/USD was able to reach the mark of 0.7400 where the growth slowed down. The resistance stands at 0.7500, the support comes in at 0.7400.

MACD is on the zero line, the indicator does not give a signal. The indicator RSI is in the neutral area. The price is above Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages (50 and 200) work as a support for the pair.

Trading recommendations

The quotes bounced off the Moving Averages (50 and 200). The price may grow to the local high at 0.7500. As an alternative scenario the pair will decrease to the level 0.7270 and further to 0.7140.



GOLD

General overview

On Monday, the gold futures grew to fresh four-week highs. Investors prepared for the Fed meeting.

Current situation

The gold quotes tried to continue their growth on Monday. However, the wave of growth slowed down and stopped at the mark of 1287. The pair spent the whole day just above the level of 1280. The resistance is at 1300, the support lies at 1280.

MACD is in a positive area that is a buy signal. The signal line is in the histogram. RSI is in the overbought level of 70. That is a sell signal. The price is above Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200). There was a crossover on the Moving Averages that is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The gold metal is overbought. We expect a correction. The sellers’ target is the mark 1260.



Brent

General overview

The Brent prices continued to decline as the weak economic data from Asia had revived concerns about the global economic outlook. The strengthening of the US also had a negative impact on the oil prices.

Current situation

The oil quotes stopped their decrease and even made an attempt to grow. The Brent started the week from the support at 49.60. The futures grew to the level of 50.50 but failed to consolidate above it. The resistance comes in at 50.50, the support lies at 49.60.

MACD is in the negative area, its signal line is in the histogram. MACD decreased and that is a sell signal. RSI bounced off the oversold level of 30. That is a buy signal. The Brent quotes bounced off the 100 Moving Average that is a buy signal.

Trading recommendations

The Brent may return to a growth if it breaks the resistance 50.50 (the 50 Moving Average). If the quotes consolidate over 51.00 it will advance north to 52.50. Otherwise we will see a drop below 49.60.



Dax30

General overview

On Monday, the European stock indices opened with a sharp decrease, as investors remained cautious ahead of meetings of two Central Banks (the US and Japanese). The oil prices decrease pressured the indices as well.

Current situation

The index showed low volatile trades and remain at the opening prices level during the Asian and European sessions. The price fell at the American session. The new local low is at 9630. The resistance comes in at 9760, the support is at 9550.

MACD is in the negative area that is a sell signal. RSI is in the oversold area. The index fell through Moving Averages 50, 100 and 200 and moved away from them. The level 9760 is a strong support on the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

The index is oversold. We expect a correction this week. Shall the Dax30 increase it will grow to 1000. If the index consolidates 9670 it will fall deeper to 9550.



SP500

General overview

The weakening of the dollar and the growth of oil prices pressured the USA indices. All indices are in the "red zone" in anticipation of upcoming statistical data in the US (the rate hike, retail sales, inflation and others.)

Current situation

The index tried to recover on Monday. SP500 bounced from the support 2086 and grew to the current resistance 2100. SP500 failed to grow further and returned at the opening price level. The resistance comes at 2100, the support is at 2086.

MACD is in the negative area that is a bearish signal. RSI is close to the oversold area. That is a buy signal. The index broke through the 50 Moving Average and stopped on the 100 Moving Average. There is an upward trend on the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

If the price consolidates above 2100 the price may return to the growth. If the index does make a breakout at that level 2100 we will see a drop to 2070



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS



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PostSubject: Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis    Wed Jun 15, 2016 1:12 am

"Fort Financial Services"- technical analysis.

15.06.2016

Euro

General overview

Even though the Eurozone published positive industrial production report the euro continued its decrease. The euro is near the new lows of the week due to German government bonds yields falling and due to concerns about the referendum in the UK.

Current situation

The price moved in the descending price channel. Its low boundary is at 1.1230, the upper boundary is located at 1.1300. Yesterday the growth wave faded away, sellers returned to the market. The pair EUR/USD fell from the resistance 1.1300. The price broke the level of 1.1250 and approached the mark of 1.1200. The pair began a consolidation phase. The resistance is at 1.1250, the support is at 1.1200.

MACD is in the negative area. MACD decreased, that is a sell signal. RSI is in the oversold area. If oscillator leaves the oversold area upwards it will give a buy signal. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are parallel to each other. The main trend is down.


Trading recommendations

The pair now seems to be heading towards the support near 1.1130. The level of 1.1300 limits the growth of the pair. An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above this resistance.



Pound

General overview

Yesterday the pound was trading nearly two-month low against the dollar. The inflation in May remained at the same level, while the concerns about the Brexit pressured the pound.

Current situation

Technically, the main trend is down on the daily chart. The pair continued its decrease and broke the level 1.4240. The decrease was stopped by the resistance 1.4150. The pair spent the last part of the day near that level. The resistance is at 1.4240, the support come in at 1.4150.

MACD is in the negative area. The indicator decreased, that is a sell signal. RSI is in the oversold zone. We consider that as a buy signal. The pair is below Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are directed downwards. That is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The quotes are near the year low and we do not think the pair will break it easily. The support 1.4060 limits the decrease of the pair. If this level can hold we will see a bounce off to the level 1.4400. An downtrend will start as soon as the pair drops below this support level.



Yen

General overview

On Tuesday, Taro Aso (Japanese Finance Minister) warned the market against the latest strengthening of the yen. According to Taro Aso the officials would "respond decisively" to prevent speculative movements in the currency market.
Current situationThe yen continued its decrease and set a new day low at 105.64. After reaching the mark 105.64 was in a sideway, remaining under pressure. The resistance is at 107.00, the support is at 106.00.

MACD indicator is in a negative area, the histogram decreased. MACD shows a convergence. RSI is close the oversold level of 30. That is considered as a buy signal. The pair USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The pair is on the year lows on the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

If the support 105.30 will be broken, the price may fall further to 104.50. An uptrend will start as soon as the pair grows above the resistance level 107.00.



NZD

General overview

The market is not ready to risk before the main events of this week (the Fed and BoJ meetings). The decrease of the European Bonds markets and the bearish tone around oil prices pressured the pair NZD/USD.

Current situation

The NZD/USD returned below the level of 0.7050. The pair was under pressure and headed towards the level 0.6950. The resistance stands at 0.7050, the support comes in at 0.6950.

MACD is on the zero line. If MACD went into the negative area it shall give a sell signal. The indicator RSI is in the neutral area. The indicator is approaching the oversold area. The price is above Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The price is close to the 50 Moving Average which is just above the nearest support line. The MA can stop the quotes from the decrease or can bounce them up.

Trading recommendations

The level 0.7000 used to be a strong resistance, now it is the key level for a downtrend. We hardly can imagine the strengthening of the NZD when the anti-risk sentiment prevails. Our eyes are right now at the support level 0.6950. If the pair breaks it the way to the level 0.6850 will be open.



GOLD

General overview

The gold futures took a pause before the Fed meeting results announcement.

Current situation

The gold futures declined during the Asian and the European sessions on Tuesday. The metal returned to a growth during the American session. The gold set a new day high at the mark 1289. The gold is trying to consolidate above the level of 1280.00 and continue to grow on the one hour chart. The resistance is at 1300, the support lies at 1280.

MACD is in a positive area, the histogram declined that is a sell signal. The signal line left the histogram. That is a pivot signal. RSI is in the overbought level of 70. That is a buy signal. Shall the signal line leave the overbought zone down we will get a sell signal. The price is above Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200). There was a crossover on the Moving Averages. The Moving Averages are directed upwards.

Trading recommendations

The gold futures are at 1280.00 on the daily chart. That is a very important level which may act as a further level of support if the price closes above it. Therefore, it is the best to wait for a consolidation above or below the level.



Brent

General overview

The Brent declined when investors ignored signs of narrowing of the market due to concerns about the global growth slow down and stock markets decrease before the referendum in the UK.

Current situation

The oil futures spent the day in a sideway movement that was between 49.50 and 50.00. The resistance comes in at 50.50, the support lies at 49.50.
MACD is in the negative area, its signal line is in the histogram. MACD decreased and that is a sell signal. RSI is close to the oversold level of 30. The Brent quotes are below Moving Averages (50 and 100) that serve as a resistance.

Trading recommendations

If the Brent remains below 50.50 it shall decrease to 48.50. Alternatively, the Brent may grow to 51.50.



Nasdaq

General overview

The US stock indexes fell due to the increased traders’ nervousness before the meeting of the Fed and the referendum in the UK.

Current situation

The index tried to recover on Tuesday. Nasdaq reversed to 4430. Sellers returned to the market at the American session and sent the price down. The index fell through the support 4400 and stopped at 4383. The resistance comes at 4400, the support is at 4350.

MACD is in the negative area that is a bearish signal. RSI is in the oversold area. If the line leaves the oversold area upwards we shall get a buy signal. The index broke through the 200 Moving Average. The 50 and 100 Moving Averages are above the price.

Trading recommendations

We believe the index shall decrease until the Fed announces its decision regarding the rate. The weakness of the market can send the index to the support 4350. Nasdaq can bounce to 4440.



SP500

General overview

The key stock indices closed the day in the "red zone" on expectations of a two-day meeting of the Fed. Current situationThe index tried to recover and was able to reach 2061 when sellers returned to the market and sent the price down. SP500 quotes broke the level 2070 and set a new local low at 2060. The resistance comes in at 2070, the support is at 2055.

MACD is in the negative area that is a bearish signal. RSI is in the oversold area. If the line leaves the oversold area we shall get a buy signal. The index broke through the 200 Moving Average. The 50 and 100 Moving Averages are above the SP500. There is an upward trend on the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

If the price remains below the level 2070 (SMA 200) the downtrend will be continued. Any move above this level should be considered corrective.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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ValdisFFS



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PostSubject: Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis    Fri Jun 17, 2016 2:01 am

"Fort Financial Services"- technical analysis.

17.06.2016

Euro

General overview

The euro significantly fell against the US dollar. The latest Fed meeting returned interest to the US currency. The USA published Initial Jobless Claims that turned out to be worse than the forecast. Nevertheless the USA statistics had little impact on the pair.

Current situation

The pair left more that 0.60% during the Thursday trades. The EUR/USD fell from the beginning of the European session. The pair decreased from 1.1300 to 1.1130. The price broke two supports on its way: 1.1250 and 1.1200. After testing 1.1130 the pair gained back some losses. The day the pair ended at 1.1250. The resistance is at 1.1250, the support come in at 1.1200.

The pair remained in the descending channel. The technical indicators are within the bearish zone on the 4-hour chart. The price is below all the moving averages, indicating a possible further decline.

MACD is in the negative area. There was a sell signal when the indicator decreased. RSI is near the oversold area, it is also a sell signal. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are parallel to each other. There was a crossover on the Moving Averages. The Moving Averages direction is downwards.

Trading recommendations
The indicators recommend short positions. Any rebound above 1.1250 should be considered as corrective. Should the level 1.1130 break down the price will decrease to 1.1000



Pound

General overview

The retail sales grew in the UK in May. The UK economy still has strength despite the uncertainty about the outcome of the referendum. The UK Central Bank left its monetary policy unchanged.

Current situation

The pair was decreasing yesterday during the European session. The pair fell from 1.4215 and reached the mark of 1.4011. The pair GBP/USD turned upwards on the American session and reversed some of its losses. The pair recovered from 1.4000 and reached the opening price level. The resistance is at 1.4240, the support come in at 1.4150.

The technical indicators lost their bearish impulse, but remained in the red zone. The MACD recovered, its sell signal faded. RSI bounced from the oversold area. If the oscillator remains above the oversold area we will get a buy signal. The Moving Averages are moving downwards which is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

Once the pair breaks above the 1.4240 level we will see it growing to 1.4400. Alternatively, we expect a decrease to 1.4060



Yen

General overview

The Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged, despite the weak global growth and low inflation.Current situation The yen was able to strengthen at yesterday’s trades. The pair decreased from the level 105.50. The USD/JPY was able to set a new local low at the mark 103.50. In general the pair lost about 1.40% during Thursday. The resistance is at 105.30, the support is at 104.50.

After MACD decreased, there was a sell signal from the indicator. RSI is in the oversold level. If RSI remain in the oversold area we will get another sell signal. Alternatively, if it grows it will give an opposite signal. The pair USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages direction is downwards. The pair is on the year lows on the daily chart. The pair is on the year lows.

Trading recommendations

The pair is still under pressure. We expect a further decline towards 103.50



AUD

General overview

The risk assets decreased against the dollar. The results of the Fed meeting, as well as the decline of oil were the key drivers for the pair.

Current situation

The pair was falling the whole Thursday. The AUD/USD decreased from the level 0.7440 to the mark 0.7384. After setting a day low the price recovered back to 0.7400. The resistance is at 0.7400, the support is at 0.7270.
MACD is in the negative area. The indicator decreased. If the histogram remains in the negative area it will show a sell signal. The indicator RSI is neutral. The attempt to break through the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) failed on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are horizontal.

Trading recommendations

If the pair gets below 0.7270 the decrease will be continued to 0.7140. We do not exclude a correction to 0.7450



GOLD

General overview

On Thursday, the gold futures rose to the highest mark since August 2014. The recent monetary decisionsof the Federal Reserve System and the Bank of Japan supported the gold metal.

Current situation

The gold futures set a new year high at the mark of 1315. After reaching the level of 1315 the quotes decreased back to 1270. The resistance is at 1315, the support is at 1280.

MACD is in a positive area, the histogram moved downwards that is a sell signal. RSI left the overbought level of 70. If the price enters the overbought area again we will see a return to the growth. The price is above Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200). The Moving Averages direction is upwards.

Trading recommendations

The Fed and BoJ decisions supported the gold. We do not see a ceiling for the gold. The metal can grow further taking into consideration the upcoming referendum in the UK. The next buyers’ targets are the marks 1315, 1330 and 1350



Brent

General overview

On Thursday, the Brent prices fell to the four-week lows. The market concerns that the Great Britain may leave the European Union pressured the appetite for the risky assets. The Brent futures fell due to the reduced concerns about the global supply disruptions.

Current situation

The oil quotations remained under pressure. The Brent broke through the supports 48.50 and 47.50 dollars per barrel, and fell to the level of 46.50. The oil set a new low at the mark of 47.06. The resistance is at 47.50, the support is at 46.50.

MACD is in the negative area, the histogram decreased, there was a sell signal from the indicator. RSI entered the oversold area again. The Brent quotes are below Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200). The MA 200 works as a resistance.

Trading recommendations

The Brent stopped near 47.20. A cut through here will aim it at the 46.50 level. If the pair consolidates above 48.50 there will be a high chance of its return to the growth



Nasdaq

General overview

The US stocks declined on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve left the interest rates unchanged. The USA regulator warned about slowing of economic growth if the Great Britain leaves the EU.

Current situation

The index decreased the part of Thursday. Nasdaq lost about 0.40% during the day. The index touched 4350 and bounced away. The Thursday trades the index ended around the mark of 4440. The resistance comes at 4440, the support is at 4350.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram grew, we received a buy signal from MACD. RSI is above the oversold area. If the line leaves the oversold area upwards we shall get a buy signal. There was a crossover on the Moving Averages (50 and 100). The 200 Moving Average direction is horizontal. The
50 and 100 Moving Averages direction is downwards. The 200 Moving Average is a resistance.

Trading recommendations

The index can recover to 4440. If Nasdaq consolidates above 4440 the price may return to a growth. If the pair manages to breakout 4350 it may decrease to 4300



S&P 500

General overview

The US Bonds market has been falling for five consecutive sessions. The Fed decision to leave its key interest rate unchanged did not support the index. Now the Fed plans a smaller number of rates hikes in 2017 and 2018 and that fact pressured SP500.

Current situation

The index continued its decrease. The index has been falling nearly a week without long stops. SP500 set a new local low at 2050. The resistance comes in at 2086, the support is at 2070.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram returned to a decrease that is a sell signal. RSI returned to the oversold area it is also a sell signal. The index left the Moving Average far above, it is another sell signal. The area 2040 – 2020 is a strong support on the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

The index may decrease further. It approached the strong support at 2030 where SP500 may bounce upwards. Shall the index break this level downwards we will see its decrease to 1980.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman


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PostSubject: Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis    Mon Jun 20, 2016 3:37 am

"Fort Financial Services"- technical analysis.

20.06.2016

Euro

General overview

We noticed a growth of risk appetite last Friday. However we do not believe the euro will grow. It may fall against the pound, if the UK decides to stay in the EU or if the UK decides to stay in the alliance the euro may fall in other pairs.

Current situation

The pair remained in a downside channel. Even though the pair made attempts to grow it failed to break the trend line. The indicators recommend short positions. Any growth above 1.1300 should be considered corrective. The resistance is at 1.1300, the support come in at 1.1250.

MACD is in the negative area. The indicator grew that indicated the current correction If MACD returns to a decrease there will be a sell signal. RSI is growing, it is also a buy signal. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are parallel to each other. There is a crossover on the Moving Averages. The Moving Averages direction is horizontal.

Trading recommendations

The pair is still under pressure. If the level 1.1250 is broken downwards the price will decrease to 1.1130. Alternatively we may see a growth to 1.1400



Pound

General overview

The advertising campaigns in the UK were stopped due to the Joe Cox's murder (the Member of Parliament). The demand for the dollar remained weak as the main Central Banks may conduct a joint operation to inject dollar liquidity to the market in case of Brexit.

Current situation

The pound reversed on Friday. However its recovery was stopped near the mark of 1.4400. We believe a lot of sellers are at that level and they will not let buyers to grow further. The resistance is at 1.4400, the support come in at 1.4320.

From a technical point of view, the trend is clearly bearish. The pound continued to show decreasing of highs and lows. The price is below the 200-SMA on the 4 hour chart. The 50-SMA and 100-SMA are below the price and work as support. MACD grew into the positive area that supported the current correction. If MACD returns to the negative area we will get a sell signal. RSI approached the overbought level of 70. The oscillator will show a buy signal until it stays near the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

Once the pair consolidated above the 1.4000 level we will see it growing to 1.4560. Alternatively, we expect a decrease to 1.4150. We expect a volatility growth this week before the Brexit.



Yen

General overview

The lack of new steps in the monetary policy softening by the Bank of Japan supported the demand for the yen.

Current situation

The pair remained in a downside channel. The dollar is under pressure. The new local low is at 103.96. The resistance is at 104.50, the support is at 103.50.

MACD decreased, there was a sell signal from the indicator. RSI is in the oversold area. If RSI remains in the oversold area we will get another sell signal. The pair USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving downwards.

Trading recommendations

The pair is still under pressure. We expect its further decline towards 103.50



NZD/USD

General overview

The pair NZD / USD found a support due to an increase in risk appetite. The pair NZD / USD was in the flat on Friday after testing the previous high at 0.7150.

Current situation

The pair was in a flat on Friday. The NZD/USD remained between 0.7030 and 0.7070. The pair is under pressure. The resistance is at 0.7050, the support is at 0.6950.

MACD is in the positive area, it is close to the centerline. The indicator decreased. If the histogram returns into the negative area it will show a sell signal. The indicator RSI is neutral. The NZD/USD is above the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving upwards. The 50-SMA is a support where the pair can pivot upwards.

Trading recommendations

The overall outlook remained bullish. However the pair NZD/USD is overbought. If it consolidates below 0.7050 the decrease will be continued to 0.6950-0.6900.



GOLD

General overview

On Friday, the gold prices fell as traders took profits after the jump of the pair to 23-month high on Thursday.

Current situation

The overall outlook remained bullish despite the resent correction down. The other day the gold futures fell from a new year high at the mark of 1315. We consider this increase corrective. The pair grew and was able to return some recent losses. The resistance is at 1300, the support is at 1280.

MACD is in a positive area, the histogram turned upwards. RSI returned to the overbought level of 70. If the price enters the overbought area again we will see a return to the growth. The price is above Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200). The Moving Averages direction is upwards.

Trading recommendations

If we see further attempts to break the support 1280 the chances for a correction will grow. Meanwhile the pair may recover to 1315



Brent

General overviewT

he US dollar weakened after the recent macroeconomic reports from the USA. A weak dollar supported the oil market, as it made the oil cheaper for owners of foreign currencies.

Current situation

The oil quotations kept growing. The Brent was able to recover by 0.26%. The oil price broke the levels 4700 and 4750. The Brent touched the level of 48.00 by the end of trades. The resistance is at 48.50, the support is at 48.00.

MACD is in the negative area. However the histogram was growing that confirmed the current growth. RSI approached the overbought level of 70. If RSI gets into the overbought area we will get a buy signal The Brent broke the 200-SMA and approached the 50-SMA and 100-SMA. If the oil consolidates above the 50-SMA and 100-SMA the buyers will become stronger.

Trading recommendations
The break below 48.50 might force the pair to resume its downward trajectory and drift to 46.50. An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above resistance level 49.50.



DAX30

General overview


The major stock indexes rose in the European session and spent Friday in the "green zone", reducing weekly drop. The index DAX30 grew amid easing concerns about a potential exit of Great Britain from the European Union (Brexit).

Current situation

The index was recovering the whole Friday. DAX gained 0.85% by the end of trades. The resistance comes at 9760, the support is at 9550.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram grew, we received a buy signal from MACD. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards.

Trading recommendations
The index can recover further to 9760. If DAX consolidates above 9760 it may grow to 1000



S&P 500

General overview

The US indices started trading on Friday below zero, in particular S&P 500 started with -0.13%. The minor changes before the opening of the US stock markets were due to the uncertainty around the possible results of the British referendum which will take place on 23 June.

Current situation

The index stopped falling and reversed. The SP500 recovered from 2050 and reached the mark 2083. The growth was stopped and the index slightly fell. The resistance comes in at 2086, the support is at 2070.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram returned to a growth that coincided with the current growth. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal. The index broke the 200-SMA and remained on it. The 50-SMA and 100-SMA are above the price.

Trading recommendations

The index may growth further. The next target for this pair is the resistance of 2086. Shall the index break the level 2055 downwards we will see it decreasing to 2040

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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PostSubject: Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis    Tue Jun 21, 2016 2:41 am

"Fort Financial Services"- technical analysis.

21.06.2016

Euro

General overview

No important news were published on Monday and only Neel Kashkari's speech (the Fed representative) was the focus of our attention.

Current situation

The Monday trades started with a growth. The pair grew to the upper boundary of the descending channel. The indicators recommend short positions. The resistance is at 1.1370, the support come in at 1.1300.

MACD is in the positive area. The indicator grew that indicated the current growth. If MACD returns to a decrease there will be a sell signal. RSI is close to the overbought area. The growth into overbought area will give us a buy signal. The decrease of the signal line will give us a sell signal. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are parallel to each other. The Moving Averages direction is horizontal.

Trading recommendations

The pair is still under pressure. The bulls’ attempt to change the market failed. If the level 1.1250 is broken downwards the price will decrease to 1.1130. Alternatively we may see a growth to 1.1450 – 1.1500.



Pound

General overview

On Monday, the pound strengthened against other major currencies when fears that the UK may leave the European Union weakened. The latest poll results revealed that the number of Britons who prefer to stay in the EU is more than the number of those who want to leave it.

Current situation

The pound reversed last week and continued growing this week as well. The pair set a new local high at the mark of 1.4700. According to the daily chart the resistance 1.4670 is a strong level where the price reverses several times. The resistance is at 1.4670, the support come in at 1.4560. The pound grew to the upper boundary of the descending channel. The price is above the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are turning upwards.

MACD grew into the positive area that supported the current correction. If MACD stays in the positive area the growth will be continued. RSI is in the overbought level of 70. The oscillator will show a buy signal until it stays in the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

The resistance 1.4670 limits the growth of the pair. This is a strong level which the pair could not break since February, 2016. If the pair breaks the level the growth will be continued. Otherwise we will see a return below 1.4400



Yen

General overview
The dollar rose against the yen, retreating from an almost two-year low reached last Thursday when theBank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged. Investors hoped that the Bank would implement additional stimulus.

Current situation

The pair remained in a downside channel. The dollar is still under pressure. The pair set new local low at 104.00. The resistance is at 104.50, the support is at 103.50.

MACD grew, there was a sell signal from the indicator. RSI is close to the oversold area. If RSI gets into the oversold area we will get a sell signal. The pair USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving downwards.

Trading recommendations
The pair is still under pressure. We expect its further decline towards 103.50. Alternatively we shall see a growth to 106.00



USD/CAD

General overview

The inflation in Canada is lower than expected according to Friday release.

Current situation
The pair is under pressure. The USD/CAD decreased and set a new low at the mark of 1.2770. The resistance is at 1.2900, the support is at 1.2800.

MACD moved into the negative area. The signal line is above the histogram. If the histogram remains in the negative area it will show a sell signal. The indicator RSI is close to the oversold area. The USD/CAD is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving downwards.

Trading recommendations

The pair USD/CAD is oversold. If it consolidates below 1.2800 the decrease will be continued to 1.2680. If the pair manages a break above 1.2900 and stays there we would likely be buying to 1.3100



GOLD

General overview

Demand for safe assets decreased, the gold futures got under pressure. The price moved away from a 22-month high last week. The improved market sentiment also contributed to the strengthening of the dollar.

Current situation

The overall outlook remained bullish despite the resent correction. The pair spent near the level of 1280 the first day of the week. All attempts to break the level had failed. The resistance is at 1300, the support is at 1280.

MACD is in a positive area, the histogram decreased. RSI left the overbought level of 70. If the price returns to the overbought area we will get a buy signal. The price is above Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200). The Moving Averages direction is upwards.

Trading recommendations

If we see further attempts to break the support 1280 the chances for a correction will grow. Meanwhile the pair may recover to 1315



Brent

General overview

The oil quotes rose on Monday when fears that Britain would leave the European Union decreased. The weak dollar also supported the Brent quotes.

Current situation

The oil quotations kept growing. The price left the descending channel. The Brent was able to recover to 50.50. The resistance is at 50.50, the support is at 49.50.

MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew that confirmed the current growth. RSI approached the overbought level of 70. If RSI gets into the overbought area we will get a buy signal. The Brent broke all Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200). If the oil consolidates above all Moving Averages the buyers will become stronger.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued. The level 50.50 limits the growth of the Brent. A break above this mark risks a growth back towards the resistance at 51.50.



DAX30

General overview

The major stock indexes rose in the European session and spent Friday in the "green zone", reducing weekly drop. The index DAX30 grew amid easing concerns about a potential exit of Great Britain from the European Union (Brexit).

Current situation

The index was recovering the whole Friday. DAX gained 0.85% by the end of trades. The resistance comes at 9760, the support is at 9550.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram grew, we received a buy signal from MACD. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards.

Trading recommendations

The index can recover further to 9760. If DAX consolidates above 9760 it may grow to 1000



S&P 500

General overview

On Monday, the US index futures showed a sharp rise, as fears that the UK will vote for the exit from the European Union decreased.

Current situation

The index stopped falling and reversed. The SP500 recovered from 2050 and reached the mark 2083. The growth was stopped and the index slightly fell. The resistance comes in at 2086, the support is at 2070.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram returned to a growth that coincided with the current growth. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal. The index broke the 200-SMA and remained on it. The 50-SMA and 100-SMA are above the price.

Trading recommendations

The index may growth further. The next target for this pair is the resistance of 2086. Shall the index break the level 2055 downwards we will see it decreasing to 2040.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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PostSubject: Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis    Wed Jun 22, 2016 3:08 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- technical analysis.

22.06.2016

Euro

General overview

Economic sentiment release supported the euro on Tuesday. Yesterday Draghi and Yellen gave their speeches. According to Draghi the inflation is moderate in the Eurozone. Yellen said that the rates would remain at the current low levels a long period of time. According to Yellen the USA economy showed a strong growing of the GDP.

Current situation

The Tuesday trades started with a decrease. The pair was falling the whole day. The euro broke the level of 1.1300 and tested the level of 1.1250. The EUR/USD remained in the descending channel. The indicators recommend short positions. The resistance is at 1.1300, the support comes in at 1.1250.

MACD is in the positive area. The indicator decreased that indicated the current fall of the pair. If MACD gets into the negative area there will be a sell signal. RSI decreased and approached the oversold area.

The decrease of the signal line gives us a sell signal. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are parallel to each other. The Moving Averages direction is horizontal. The price stopped at the MA.

Trading recommendations

Bears returned to the market. As we expected the price was not able to grow above 1.1370. We expect the decrease to be continued now. We will sell if the pair consolidates below the level of 1.1250



Pound

General overview

The pound received support from the latest poll which had showed the growth of Britons who wanted to stay in the EU. The pair set a fresh seven-week high against the dollar. Public Sector Net Borrowing also supported the national currency.

Current situation

The pound reversed yesterday from the seven-week high when investors began closing long positions. The pair fell from the level 1.4760 to the next support at 1.4670. The price ended the trades in the area 1.4620. The resistance is at 1.4670, the support come in at 1.4560. The price is above the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages direction is upwards.

All indicators are overbought. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram decreased that supported the current drop. If MACD decreases further the pair will fall further. RSI left the overbought level of 70. The oscillator will show a sell signal until it stays below the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

As we predicted the resistance 1.4670 did not let the pair to grow. This is a strong level which the pair could not break since February, 2016. The first target is 1.4560. We believe that the break below 1.4560 should send this market looking for the 1.4400 level.



Yen

General overview

The yen fell against the US dollar after a significant strengthening the other day. The Yellen’s speech supported the dollar yesterday. Besides, the decrease of the risk appetite lowered the demand for the "safe haven" assets when fears that the UK may leave the European Union stepped away.

Current situation

The USD/JPY remained in a downside channel. We see a technical correction right now. The dollar was growing yesterday and returned some of its previous losses. The resistance is at 105.30, the support is at 104.50.

MACD grew, there was a buy signal from the indicator. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal. The pair USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving downwards that is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations
We believe the pair will recover to the area of 105.70 – 106.00. Alternatively it will decrease to 103.50



AUD/USD

General overview

The Australian dollar strengthened when the Reserve Bank of Australia published its last meeting minutes. The regulator left the rates unchanged. According to the Central Bank the main reasons to keep the rates unchanged were: a positive economic data, a significant weakening of the national currency, as well as the rise in house prices and a positive wage prospects.

Current situation

The pair deprived from the three weeks high. The AUD/USD decreased from the mark of 0.7510 and stopped at 0.7458. The price is below a strong resistance where it has bounced downwards lately. The resistance is at 0.7500, the support is at 0.7400.

MACD is in the positive area. The indicator shows a divergence. The MACD indicator is giving a sell signal. The indicator RSI moved from the overbought area. The oscillator will show a sell signal until it stays below the overbought area. The pair is above the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour
chart. The Moving Averages are moving upwards.

Trading recommendations

The pair is overbought. If the AUD/USD falls below 0.7400 the decrease will be continued to 0.7270.



GOLD

General overview

The gold futures continued to lose their value preparing for the long-awaited referendum in the UK.

Current situation

The pair started a correction. The instrument moved from 1293 and reached 1263 later the day. The resistance is at 1280, the support is at 1260.

MACD moved into the negative area. If the histogram remains in the negative area the decline will be continued. RSI approached the oversold area. If the price gets into the area the decrease will be continued.

The price broke the 50-SMA and stopped at 100-SMA. The Moving Averages are reversing.

Trading recommendations

The indicators suggest the sell positions. The break below 1270 would open the way to 1260 and 1250. The gold may pullback to 1280 to continue falling from it.



Brent

General overview

Weekly Crude Oil Stock in the USA showed -1,900M. According to Secretary General of OPEC the volume of the oil production is growing in Nigeria.

Current situation

The oil quotations returned to a growth. The price has been growing three days in a line. The Brent left the descending channel far behind. The resistance is at 50.50, the support is at 49.50.

MACD moved into the positive area. The histogram grew that confirmed the current growth of the quotes. RSI approached the overbought level of 70. If RSI gets into the overbought area we will get a buy signal. The Brent broke all Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200). If the oil consolidates above them the buyers will become stronger.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued. The level 50.50 limits the growth of the Brent. A break above this mark risks a growth towards the resistance at 51.50.



DAX

General overview

The European Bonds Markets showed mixed trades on Tuesday. The investors are nervousness the day before the referendum in the UK.

Current situation

The DAX index continued its recovery and was able to break the resistance 1000. The quotes ended the day at 10070. The resistance comes at 10175, the support is at 1000.

MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew, we received a buy signal from MACD. RSI approached the overbought area. If the oscillator bounces back that will be a sell signal. If RSI enters the overbought area we will get a buy signal. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are below the price. The 100-SMA and 200-SMA work as a support.

Trading recommendations

If DAX30 fixates above 10100 the index may grow to 10175. Otherwise the price will drop to 1000



SP 500

General overview

The US stocks slightly rise on Tuesday after the Janet Yellen's speech. Janet Yellen spoke about the state of the US economy. The shares of the energy sector rose by 0.9% amid the oil prices growth (2.9%). Marathon Oil shares rose by 10% when the company announced its plans to acquire PayRock Energy Holdings for 888 million dollars.

Current situation

The index remained in a range between 2086 and 2073. The index showed a mixed dynamics during the day. The SP500 fell to the bottom of the side channel where it turned up and grew to the nearest resistance. The resistance comes in at 2086, the support is at 2070.

MACD is on the centerline. The indicator does not give a clear signal. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal. The index stuck between the 200-SMA (support) and the 50-SMA (resistance). The 100-SMA is above the price.

Trading recommendations

The index may growth further. The levels 2086 and 2100 are still our targets. Shall the index break the
level 2070 downwards we will see it decreasing to 2055



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman


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PostSubject: Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis    Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:48 am

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

24.06.2016

Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

PMI Composite from Markit in the Eurozone came out worse than expected. However the euro ignored the news, the referendum in the UK was in the spotlight the whole day. The weakening of the dollar pushed the European currency upwards.

Current situation

The pair showed a mix dynamics yesterday still the growth was its main tendency. The quotes grew during the Asian and the European sessions and slightly fell at the American one. The EUR/USD pair is at the upper boundary of the descending channel. The resistance is at 1.1370, the support lies in at 1.1300.

MACD grew during the day. The indicator is in the positive area. If the indicator remains in the positive area its signal will be bullish. RSI is close to the overbought level. If RSI enters the overbought area that will be a buy signal. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are parallel to each other. The SMAs direction is horizontal. The price is above the Moving Averages.

Trading recommendations

If the market preserves a growth sentiment the euro will keep growing. The pair EUR/USD is close to the strong resistance and it might bounce downwards. If the instrument grows it will reach the level 1.1450. Otherwise it will decrease to 1.1250.



Pound

General overview

The British currency rose on Thursday after receiving preliminary information regarding the referendum. The number of EU supporters was bigger than the number of their opponents. That news supported the pound. The referendum results will be announced on Friday morning.

Current situation

The pound received some support from the news flow and scientifically grew. The pair grew by 0.80%. The instrument set a new high at the mark of 1.4947. The resistance is at 1.5000, the support comes in at 1.4900.

The price is above the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages direction is upwards.

All indicators remained overbought. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew. If MACD decreases the pair will correct downwards. If the indicator remains in the positive area the growth will be continued. The MACD shows signs of the divergence. RSI remained below the overbought level of 70. The oscillator will show a sell signal until it stays below the overbought area.

Trading recommendations

The pair is going upwards. The bulls’ target is the level 1.5000. If the price falls it will get to the level of 1.4400.



Yen

General overview

The dollar declined across the market. The growth of risks due to Brexit made the yen attractive as a reserve currency.

Current situation

The USD/JPY grew and ended the trades at the upper boundary of the downside channel. The new local high is at the level 106.00. The resistance is at 106.00, the support is at 105.30.

MACD grew into the positive area. If the indicator remains in the positive area the growth will be continued. RSI also grew and approached the overbought level. If oscillator decreases the instrument will correct downwards. The USD/JPY grew though the 50-SMA on the 4 hour chart. The 100-SMA stopped the growth of the pair.

Trading recommendations

The yen may continue the upward movement in the short term. Its potential target is 106.50. Still the pair stopped at the pretty strong level 106.00. The pair has recently fallen from it. That’s why we do not exclude the sell scenario.



AUD/USD

General overview

On Thursday, the American dollar fell against all major currency pairs. The referendum in the UK was the focus of our attention. The Australian dollar was supported by the weakness of its American counterpart and rose to a nine-month high.

Current situation

The instrument was able to set a new local high at the point of 0.7600. The overall outlook remained bullish. The resistance is at 0.7600, the support is at 0.7500.

MACD is in the positive area. The indicator grew that is a sell signal. The indicator RSI bounced from the oversold area. If RSI got into the overbought area that is a buy signal. The oscillator will show a buy signal until it stays above the overbought area. The pair is above the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages direction is upwards.

Trading recommendations

The pair is overbought. Nevertheless it can continue its growth. The buyers’ next target is the mark 0.7650.



GOLD

General overview

The precious metal was trading near the two-week lows. The instrument took a wait and see position until the end of the referendum in the UK.

Current situation

The pair remained at the recently reached level staying in a flat. The XAU/USD spent the day between the marks of 1260 and 1270. The resistance is at 1280, the support is at 1260.

MACD decreased in the negative area. The histogram remained at the same place. If the histogram remains in the negative area the decline of the price will be continued. RSI approached the oversold area. If the price gets into the oversold area the decrease will be continued. The price broke the 50-SMA and stopped at 100-SMA. The Moving Averages direction is horizontal.

Trading recommendations

The price can grow to the resistance level of 1280. We do not exclude the falls to 1260.



Brent

General overview

The Brent crude oil prices rose on Thursday. Investors were cautious due to the referendum in Britain. The oil futures recovered from the deepest drop to the 13 year lows. The decline in production of shale oil in the USA supported the instrument.

Current situation

The oil quotations strengthened yesterday. The quotes were able to grow and almost reached the previously set highs. The resistance is at 50.50, the support is at 49.50.

MACD remained in the positive area. The histogram grew that confirmed the current growth of the quotes. MACD shows a divergence signs. RSI remained near the overbought level. If RSI declined that will be a sell signal. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are below the price.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 50.50 for a steady growth. The way to the marks 51.50 and 52.50 will be opened after this breakthrough. If the price falls it will get to 49.50 and 48.50.



DAX

General overview

The European stock market opened with a growth on Thursday. Investors kept a positive sentiment during the long-awaited referendum in the UK. The German DAX 30 rose by 1.85% over Thursday.

Current situation

The DAX30 was positive yesterday. The index strengthened and was able to set a new high at 10332. The market is bullish. The resistance comes at 10350, the support is at 10175.

MACD is in the positive area. The histogram grew, that was a buy signal. If the histogram grows we will get a buy signal. RSI moved into the overbought area. If the oscillator remains in the area that will be a buy signal. The price is above the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200). The Moving Averages direction is upwards.

Trading recommendations

If the positive sentiment preserves the index will grow to 10350. We do not exclude a correction back to 10250.



S&P 500

General overview

The US Bonds Market was under expectations of the latest events in the UK. Despite the positive sentiment regarding the referendum, the contradiction of the recent polls made the markets more cautious. The energy Sector in S&P500 fell by 0,6%. The share of the health sector grew by 6.78 at the same time.

Current situation

The instrument grew and set a new local high at 2101. However SP500 was not able to remain there and decreased back below the mark 2100. The resistance comes in at 2100, the support is at 2086.

MACD moved into the positive area. The indicator grew that is a buy signal. RSI also grew and approached the overbought level. If the signal line remains at the same place the growth will be continued. If it decreased the instrument will fall. The index is above all Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200). The 100-SMA works as a support for the price.

Trading recommendations

A break above the mark 2100 risks a growth towards 2110. If the price cannot remain at the current levels and decreases the price will move down to 2086.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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PostSubject: Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis    Sun Jun 26, 2016 10:57 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

27.06.2016

Euro

General overview

The UK decision to leave the EU led to a collapse of the world markets. As a result they fell to the record historical levels. Now the European Union is ready to negotiate with London about its exit, but until then, the UK remains a member of the Union. The EU hopes to maintain a partnership with Britain after its exit.

Current situation

The pair showed a negative dynamics right after the referendum results publication. The EUR/USD fell to the historical lows, from 1.1370 to 1.0900 and lost about 500 pp. Now the euro is under pressure and the dollar is gaining popularity. The resistance is at 1.1200, the support lies in at 1.1130.

MACD moved into the negative area. If the indicator remains there that will be a sell signal. RSI is close to the undervalued area. If RSI enters the area that will be a sell signal. In the scenario where the oscillator grows we will get a buy signal.

The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are parallel to each other. However the 50-SMA broke the two others and is moving downwards. If the current situation preserves that will be a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The trend is clearly bearish for now. We presume that the next bearish target lies at 1.0900. Still as the marker is undervalued we do not exclude a recovery back above 1.1200.



Pound

General overview

The collapse of the pound that we saw last Friday was just the beginning of the hard times for the UK economy and we shall see other after-effects soon. The 10-year British bonds yield have already decreased and have fallen to the historical lows. The credit rating of the UK (AAA) has all chances to be revised downwards in the near future.

Current situation

The pound was hurt most of all by the London decision to leave the EU. The pair fell by 10% within hours. That has been the biggest drop in the resent history. The instrument is at the lows now where it was in 80s. The resistance is at 1.3950, the support comes in at 1.3700.

The price is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages formed a cross-over and are moving downwards that is a sell signal. The indicators are undervalued now. MACD is in the negative area and its histogram decreased that is a sell signal. If MACD decreases again the pair will move downwards. RSI fell to the oversold level of 70. The oscillator will show a sell signal until it stays close to the undervalued area.

Trading recommendations

If price breaks above 1.4320, then this could lead to renewed buying momentum, possibly towards 1.5000. However we do not believe in this scenario much. We assume the instrument will remain under pressure. In the potential scenario, the next stop for the GBP/USD could well be around 1.3300.



Yen

General overview

The Bank of Japan can start an intervention in the medium term due to the increased market volatility and uncertainty in the world economy. Now markets began preparing for the bustling times when the interest to risk will be minimal and the "safe haven" assets will be in demand.

Current situation

The USD/JPY remained under pressure; the latest events in the Europe were not able to change its main trend. As many pairs the instrument decreased and returned to the region 102.50. The pair formed a new lower low at 99.00. The resistance is at 102.50, the support exists at 101.40.

MACD moved into the negative area. If the indicator remains in the undervalued area the decrease will be continued. RSI is close to the oversold level. If the oscillator decreases or remains at the current levels that will be a sell signal. The USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) which are moving downwards.

Trading recommendations

There are no major events on the schedule and we will consider selling the pair to 100.00. The mark 104.50 limits the growth of the USD/JPY if price breaks above this region the growth may be continued to the resistance area 106.00.



NZD

General overview

The New Zealand dollar was pretty volatile last Friday. The reason for that was the same theme as everywhere – Brexit. The NZD was under pressure due to the risk aversion.

Current situation

The instrument fell at the Asian session on Friday. However the kiwi was able to recover and returned almost all its losses later the day. The market tone is still positive and the current rebound below 0.7150 should be considered corrective. The resistance exists at 0.7150, the support lies at 0.7050.

Even though MACD decreased it remained in the positive area. We consider that is a buy signal. The indicator RSI bounced from the oversold area and shows a buy signal. The pair is above the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages direction is neutral.

Trading recommendations

The pair is overbought. The buyers’ next target is the mark 0.7250. If NZD decreases it will drop to 0.6850.



GOLD

General overview

We guess the gold was the only instrument in the market that won out from the Brexit. The investors turned to the gold as to a safe asset; the gold futures rose by 8% to the 2-year highs.

Current situation

The gold remained in the growing channel. The quotes set a new high at 1360. The resistance is at 1330, the support is at 1300.

MACD is moving upwards in the positive area. We receive the buy signal from the indicator. If the histogram remains in the positive area the growth will be continued. RSI approached the overbought area. If the signal line gets into the area the growth will be continued. The price is above the Moving Averages and their direction is upwards.

Trading recommendations

The price can grow to the resistance level of 1330 and further to 1360. We do not exclude a correction to 1270.



Brent

General overview

As expected, the decision of London to leave the European Union made the oil futures drop. The crude oil Brent decreased as investors decided not to take risks and took their funds away from risky assets.

Current situation

The oil quotations decreased and lost about 6% on Friday. However the situation seems to have stabilized and the oil futures found a support at 47.50. The Brent recovered by the end of traders and ended the week at the mark 48.50. The resistance is at 48.50, the support is at 47.50.

MACD moved into the negative area. The histogram decreased that is a sell signal. RSI is near the oversold level. If RSI declined that will be a sell signal. Shall it bounce upwards and the futures will recover. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are above the price.

Trading recommendations

Oil prices are currently under pressure due to a variety of factors. The dollar strengthened, the market is still overvalued, and there are signs of renewal in the US shale oil production. The Brent can drop further but not too far. We believe the instrument will find a bottom at 45.00. If the pair breaks the level 49.50 upwards that will be a buy signal.



NASDAQ

General overview

When the UK published the first results of the referendum the US stock indices fell by 4-5%. The exit from the alliance is a strong blow to the euro area economy as the UK was the second GDP in the region.

Current situation

The Nasdaq was negative on Friday. All its attempts to recover met a resistance at 4350. The resistance comes at 4300, the support is at 4250.

MACD is in the negative area; its histogram decreased. If the histogram remains in the negative area we will get a sell signal. RSI approached the oversold area. If the oscillator remains in the area that will be a sell signal. The 50-SMA broke the 200-day moving average downwards. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) direction is downwards.

Trading recommendations

If the negative sentiment preserves the index will decrease to 4250 and further to 4200.



S&P 500

General overview

London decision to leave the EU crippled world markets. The US Futures in the US S&P 500 index fell by 3.60% on the news. The US stock market closed trading on Friday by a drop due to the negative dynamics from the part of the finance, raw materials and technologies sectors.

Current situation

The instrument got under pressure and decreased at the Asian session on Friday. S&P 500 recovered some losses during the day. However when American traders came to the market sales resumed. The resistance comes in at 2025, the support lies at 2012.

MACD moved into the negative area. The indicator decreased that is a sell signal. RSI is near the oversold level. If RSI declined that will be a sell signal. Shall it bounce upwards and the index will recover. The 50-SMA broke the 200-day moving average downwards. The Moving Averages direction is downwards.

Trading recommendations

We assume the downward movement will be continued as the bearish sentiment prevails. The marks 2012 and 2000 are the sellers’ targets.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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PostSubject: Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis    Tue Jun 28, 2016 12:14 am

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

28.06.2016

Euro

General overview

The euro is under pressure against the dollar due to fears that the Brexit will worsen the prospects for the EU and the euro area economy.

Current situation

The pair showed a mixed dynamics yesterday. The euro made several attempts to recover, still the sellers did not let it to grow. The instrument remained at the same level, near the mark 1.1000. The resistance is at 1.1130, the support lies in at 1.1000.

MACD remained in the negative area. If the indicator remains in there that will be a sell signal. RSI is close to the undervalued area. If RSI enters the area, that will be a sell signal. In the scenario where the oscillator grows we will get a buy signal. The price is below the Moving Averages. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards, that is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The EUR/USD is still under pressure. We believe it will fall further and will reach the local low at 1.0900. The pair may grow only to fall from the higher levels.



Pound

General overview

The pound got under pressure again when George Osborne (the Finance Minister) said that the results of the referendum will prolong the further volatility in the financial markets. According to George Osborne the economy of the country is ready to leave the EU and it will successfully cope with its consequences.

Current situation

The pair decreased and was able to set new historical low at 1.3118. The resistance is at 1.3300, the support comes in at 1.3100.
MACD is in the negative area and its histogram decreased that is a sell signal. If MACD remains at the same levels the pair will move downwards. RSI fell to the oversold level of 30. The oscillator will show a sell signal until it stays close to the undervalued area. The price is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving downwards, that is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

We presume that the pair has no chances to recover soon. The Brexit will pressure the pair further. We do not exclude some pull backs that we expect to be weak and short-lived. The sellers’ next target is 1.3100 and 1.3000. The GBP/USD may grow towards 1.3700.



Yen

General overview

After the British referendum Shinzo Abe (the Japanese Prime Minister ) requested from Taro Aso (the Finance Minister) to monitor the currency market and to take action if necessary.

Current situation

The USD/JPY remained under pressure. The market seems fairly balanced; the instrument almost did not move and remained at the same place. The resistance is at 102.50, the support exists at 101.40.
MACD is in the negative area. If the indicator remains in the undervalued area the pair will decrease. RSI is close to the oversold level. If the oscillator decreases or remains at the current levels that will be a sell signal. If RSI growth, that will be a buy signal for us. The USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) which are moving downwards.

Trading recommendations

There are no major events on the schedule that could significantly move the pair. We expect markets to stay fairly neutral and the USD/JPY probably will remain in the same region between 101.40 and 102.50.



NZD

General overview

The markets ignored the growth of trade surplus in New Zealand in May. Meanwhile, the US dollar continued to strengthen after the referendum in Britain.

Current situation

The trend is objectively bearish and the instrument is undervalued. The NZD/USD was falling the whole Monday and reached the local low that was set last Friday. The resistance exists at 0.7050, the support lies at 0.6950.
MACD is in the negative area. If the indicator remains in the undervalued area the pair will decrease. RSI is close to the oversold level. If the oscillator decreases or remains at the current levels that will be a sell signal. If RSI growth, that will be a buy signal for us. The NZD broke 50 and 100 day moving averages and is approaching 200-day moving average. The 50-SMA and 100-SMA are turning down, the 200-SMA is still moving upwards.

Trading recommendations

The sellers’ next target is the mark 0.6950. If NZD grows it will grow to 0.7050.



GOLD

General overview

The gold again approached the two-year highs. The quotes grew after the UK unexpected decision to leave the UK. The metal is in demand as the news made investors seek for safe assets.

Current situation

The gold remained in the growing channel. As usual Monday was poor with news and there were no drivers that could move the pair. The gold futures showed a mixed dynamics still all trades were low volatile and the pair remained below 1330 dollars per ounce. The resistance is at 1330, the support is at 1300.
MACD is in the positive area. We receive the buy signal from the indicator. If the histogram remains in the positive area the growth will be continued. RSI approached the overbought area. If the signal line gets into the area the growth will be continued. In the scenario where the oscillator falls we will get a sell signal. The price is above the Moving Averages and their direction is upwards.

Trading recommendations

The price can grow to the resistance level of 1330 and further to 1360 dollars per ounce. We do not exclude a correction to 1270.



Brent

General overview

The crude oil futures marked the first day of the new week with a decline. However, some analysts believe that Brexit impact on the global fuel demand is very limited.

Current situation

The oil quotations tried to recover yesterday still buyers met the sellers’ resistance at 48.90. That mark became a pivot point and the price fell. The resistance is at 47.50, the support is at 46.50.
MACD is in the negative area. The histogram decreased that is a sell signal. RSI is near the oversold level. If RSI declined that will be a sell signal. Shall RSI bounce upwards and the Brent futures will recover. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are above the price. The Moving Averages are turning down.

Trading recommendations

In this potential scenario, the next stop for the Brent could well be around 46.50. If price breaks above 48.50 and consolidates above this level, then this could lead to renewed buying momentum, possibly towards 50.00 – 50.50 region.



DAX

General overview

The European stock indices continued to fall. The decline was caused by the uncertainty that came after the London decision to leave the EU.

Current situation

The DAX30 was bearish on Monday. However we believe that the current drop should be considered corrective. The Eurozone Bonds Market will recover from the current shock and will grow. The index reached a strong technical level 9265. DAX is fairly oversold and it may grow soon. The resistance comes at 9400, the support exists at 9250.
MACD is in the negative area; its histogram decreased. If the histogram remains in the negative area we will get a sell signal. RSI approached the oversold area. If the oscillator remains in the area, that will be a sell signal. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) direction is downwards and that is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

If the negative sentiment preserves the index will decrease to 9050.



S&P 500

General overview

The US stock indices were under pressure due to the financial sector shares decrease. The S&P decreased as the markets do not see future prospects of London as a European financial center.

Current situation

The overall outlook remained bearish. The index set a new local low at 1985. The resistance comes in at 2000, the support lies at 1985.
MACD is in the negative area. The indicator decreased that is a sell signal. RSI is near the oversold level. If RSI declined that will be a sell signal. Shall it bounce upwards and the index will recover. The 50-SMA broke the 200-day moving average downwards. The Moving Averages direction is downwards.

Trading recommendations

We assume the downward movement will be continued as the bearish sentiment prevails. The marks 1985 and 1970 are the sellers’ targets.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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PostSubject: Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis    Wed Jun 29, 2016 12:12 am

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

29.06.2016

Euro

General overview

The euro remained under pressure as uncertainty regarding the Brexit continued to cloud the prospects of the whole EU. Yesterday Mario Draghi (the ECB President) gave his speech. There were not anything specific about the current monetary policy. However, Mario Draghi noted that the Central Banks should better coordinate the monetary policies of their countries to cope with the deflationary pressure.

Current situation

The course of the pair tried to stabilize yesterday. The instrument grew and set a new local high at 1.1111. Technically, the EUR/USD remained in a narrow downward trending channel. The resistance stands at 1.1130, the support lies in at 1.1000.

MACD remained in the negative area, its histogram grew yesterday. The indicator will give sell signals until it leaves the negative area. RSI is close to the undervalued area. If RSI enters the area, that will be a sell signal. In the scenario where the oscillator grows we will get a buy signal. The price is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) which are moving downwards, that is a sell signal. The 200-day moving average is a strong resistance for the euro.

Trading recommendations

The pair may continue its growth. If the EUR/USD consolidates over 1.1130 the growth maybe continued to 1.1200. The nearest sellers’ targets are the support levels 1.1000 and 1.0900.



Pound

General overview

Yesterday the pound rose against the US dollar for the first time after the referendum, as investors’ confidence began growing.

Current situation

The pound tried to recover yesterday. However, its growth was weak and the pair did not succeed much with it. The pound was able to grow to 1.3425. The resistance is at 1.3500, the support comes in at 1.3300.

MACD is in the negative area; its histogram grew that weakened the sell signal. If MACD decreases the pair will move downwards. RSI remained close to the oversold level. The oscillator will show a sell signal until it stays close to the area. The price is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving downwards, that is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The GBP/USD may still slightly recover. If it grows the pair will aim to close the gap at 1.3700. A downtrend will start as soon as the pair drops below the support level 1.3300, which will be followed by moving down to the support levels 1.3100 and 1.3000.



Yen

General overview

Even though the USD/JPY remained under pressure it recovered yesterday. The demand for the safe assets decreased that let to the USD/JPY growth. At the same time, the stronger the pair falls, the higher is probability that the BoJ will interfere. The regulator has already promised in June to use an intervention in case of Brexit.

Current situation

The USD/JPY remained under pressure. However the pair formed a consolidation yesterday. The USD recovered and reached the mark 102.80. The resistance is at 103.50, the support stands at 102.50.

The indicators moved away from extremum. MACD remained in the negative area, still its histogram grew, that weakened the sell signal. If the indicator remains in the undervalued area the pair will decrease further. RSI is in the neutral area. If the oscillator decreases that will be a sell signal. If RSI growth, that will be a buy signal for us. The USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) which are moving downwards. The 50-day moving is the closest resistance for the instrument.

Trading recommendations

If the USD/JPY does not get new drivers it will remain between 103.50- 101.40.



AUD

General overview

On Tuesday, the dollar fell against other major currencies when the fears regarding British exit from the European Union began weakening and investors returned to the risky assets, such as the AUD/USD.

Current situation

The pair made an attempt to recover and reached the level 0.7400. The mark 0.74000 became the pivot point where the price returned to a decrease. The resistance exists at 0.7400, the support lies at 0.7270.

MACD is in the negative area, its histogram dropped. If the indicator decreases again the pair will fall further. RSI is close to the oversold level. If the oscillator moves south that will be a sell signal. The 50- moving average was the resistance that did not let the pair to grow. The pair bounced below 50, 100 and 200 moving averages which are moving downwards.

Trading recommendations

We remain bearish on the outlook for the currency. The nearest target remained the support level 0.7270. In the scenario where the buyers take control over the market the instrument will grow to 0.7400 – 0.7500.



GOLD

General overview

Yesterday the gold futures fell the first time in three sessions as investors began taking profits after the last week rally.

Current situation

The gold futures were in the red zone yesterday. The price decreased and lost about 0.48%. The market is still unstable after the Brexit referendum and the gold is still in demand that supported the metal. The resistance is at 1330, the support comes in at 1300.

MACD is in the positive area, its histogram decreased. We receive the sell signal from the indicator. If the histogram keeps decreasing, the drop of the pair will be continued. RSI remained close to the overbought area. If the signal line gets into the area the growth will be continued. In the scenario where the oscillator falls we will get a sell signal. The price is above the Moving Averages and their direction is upwards.

Trading recommendations

We are still bullish longer-term for the gold. If XAU/USD does make a breakout at that level 1330 the pair will grow to 1360. A downtrend will start as soon as the pair drops below the support level 1300.



Brent

General overview

The oil prices strengthened after falling to a seven-week low after the decision of London to leave the EU. The news that the Norway oil company stands before a strike supported the oil quotes yesterday.

Current situation

The oil quotations continued its recovery on Tuesday. The price met the resistance at 48.50 where the futures decreased back to the mark of 47.50. However buyers did not despair and started a new growth attack. The resistance is at 48.50, the support is at 47.50.

MACD is in the negative area, its histogram moved north, that is a buy signal. RSI left the oversold area. Shall RSI move upwards the Brent futures will grow. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are above the price. The 200-day moving average is moving upwards, the 50-day and 100-day moving averages direction is down.

Trading recommendations

The Brent is in a green zone. An uptrend will start as soon as the pair rises above 49.50. In the alternative scenario the pair drops below 47.50 to the support at 46.50.



Nasdaq

General overview

The Bonds Market of the USA recovered after a sharp decline due to the referendum in the UK. Nasdaq Composite rose by 2.05% during Tuesday. However uncertainty regarding the future of Great Britain held investors from active trades.

Current situation

The index recovered and succeeded with it having gained more than 2%. The new local high is at 4279. The resistance comes at 4300, the support exists at 4250.

The indicators recommend long positions. MACD is in the negative area; its histogram grew on Tuesday. If the histogram keeps growing we will get a buy signal. RSI bounced from the oversold area. If the oscillator grows, that will be another buy signal. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) direction is downwards and that is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

If Nasdaq keeps recovering it will grow to the resistance at 4300. If the price makes another attempt to drop we will see its decrease back to 4200.



S&P 500

General overview

The USA stock markets recovered when investors realized that the Brexit theme is behind and the Fed is now unlikely to hike the rates this year. On Tuesday the Bonds Market showed a moderate recovery after the sharp fall of the previous two sessions.

Current situation

The overall outlook remained bearish; the index is in a descending channel. The resistance comes in at 2025, the support lies at 2012.

MACD is in the negative area, its histogram moved north, that is a buy signal. RSI bounced off the oversold level. If RSI grows that will be a buy signal. The Moving Averages direction is downwards.

Trading recommendations

If the index keeps growing the level 2025 will become its next target.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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PostSubject: Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis    Fri Jul 01, 2016 7:30 am

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

01.07.2016

Euro

General overview

In economic news, a preliminary Consumer Price Index in the Euro zone unexpectedly rose in June. The release decreased investors' concerns about the threat of deflation in the region. The growth of the prices was positive news for the European Central Bank (ECB) which plans to reach the target inflation rate of 2%. Mark Carney’s speech supported the dollar yesterday.

Current situation

Technically, the main trend is down, the pair remained in a descending channel. All attempts to break through 1.1130 failed. The level 1.1130 and the 50-day moving average limited a growth of the instrument. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards, that is a sell signal for now. The resistance stands at 1.1130, the support lies in at 1.1000.

MACD remained in the negative area, its histogram decreased, that is a sell signal. RSI is in the neutral area; the indicator turned down to the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0900, 1.0830.



Pound

General overview

Yesterday, the pound grew against the US dollar after the block of the UK positive economic data. The markets continued their recovery after the UK decision to leave the European Union. Mark Carney (Governor of the Bank of England) gave his speech yesterday. His promises to reduce the rate this summer weakened the pound.

Current situation

The pound slowed down its recovery and stopped at the mark of 1.3500. The instrument fell at the American session, the pair lost about 1.47%. The pair is still within a short-term upward channel. The resistance is at 1.3300, the support comes in at 1.3100.

MACD remained in the negative area, its histogram decreased. The indicator will give buy signals if the histogram grows. Conversely, if MACD decreases that will be a sell signal. RSI approached the oversold area, that is a sell signal. The GBP/USD is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving downwards, that is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The next buyers’ stop could well be at 1.3700. However, we do not see any strong drivers in the foreseeable future. We support the idea of selling the pound further to the support 1.3100.



Yen

General overview

The industrial production fell in Japan in May. According to the Ministry of Economy, slow down of the world economy and problems with the automobile sector severely affected the industrial production, which fell by 2.3% compared with the previous month. Economists had expected the index to remain unchanged.

Current situation

The instrument showed side trades during the day and was able to grow only at the American session. The pair grew by 0.32%. The resistance stands at 103.50, the support is at 102.50.

The growth of MACD slowed down. The indicator remained in the negative area. If the indicator keeps heading north the growth of the pair will be continued. RSI is in the neutral area, the oscillator does not give signals. The USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) which are moving downwards. The pair tested the 50-day moving yesterday. The 50-day moving is the closest resistance for the instrument. The pair is oversold on the daily chart and is recovering.

Trading recommendations


If the USD/JPY continues growing its next stop could well be at 103.00 – 103.50 region. A break below 102.00 would open the way to 101.40.



Franc

General overview

We do not expect a sharp correction of the franc after the warnings of the Switzerland Bank regarding its possible intervention in case of a sharp growth of the franc after the Brexit. In economic news, Swiss National Bank expects to achieve a positive inflation in 2018.

Current situation

The market looks bearish. The instrument began Thursday with a drop. The pair was able to break the mark 0.9750 and set a new local low at 0.9724. However, the American traders returned the dollar above 0.9750. The resistance exists at 0.9800, the support lies at 0.9750.

MACD remained in the positive area, its histogram decreased. The indicator will give sell signals while its histogram decreases. RSI is in the neutral area; its fall from the overbought area is a sell signal. The moving averages formed a cross-over. They are moving horizontally.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to the support level of 0.9750. We do not exclude the growth to 0.9850.



NZD

Despite the fact that the dollar is largely won from the risk aversion that happened due to the Brexit the weakened expectations that the Fed would hike the interest rates this year limited its growth.

Current situation

The kiwi slowed down its recovery and stopped at the mark of 0.7140. The instrument fell at the Asian session, and then recovered during the day. The resistance 0.7150 limits its further progress. The pair is within a short-term upward channel. The resistance is at 0.7150, the support comes in at 0.7050.

MACD moved into the positive area. The indicator shows a divergence. MACD will give buy signals if the histogram grows. Conversely, if MACD decreases that will be a sell signal. RSI approached the overbought area, that is a buy signal. The NZD/USD is above the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving upwards, that is a buy signal.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 0.7150 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 0.7250 will be opened after this breakthrough.



GOLD

General overview

On Thursday the gold weakened due to the decrease of the passions over the London decision to leave the UK. The current stability in the markets undermined demand for the safe assets.

Current situation

The gold remained in a consolidation phase. The pair was moving in a range 1312 – 1325. The resistance is at 1330, the support comes in at 1300.

MACD is in the positive area, its histogram continued decreasing. If the histogram grows the price will follow it. If the MACD returns to a decrease, the drop of the pair will be continued. RSI remained close to the overbought area. If the signal line gets into the area the growth will be continued. In the scenario where the oscillator falls we will get a sell signal. The price is close to the 2 year high on the daily chart. The price is above the Moving Averages and their direction is upwards.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1300 breakthrough down the way to the support 1270 will be opened.



Brent

General overview

The oil prices have shown the biggest growth since 2009 in the second quarter of 2016. The factors that supported the Brent were: a drop in the US production, forest fires in Canada and fighting in Nigeria and Libya. All these factors significantly reduced the surplus of the world market.

Current situation

The oil quotations stopped its recovery and corrected yesterday. The oil futures moved from the local high at 51.00 and reached the support at 49.50. The resistance is at 50.50, the support is at 49.50.

MACD moved into the positive area, its histogram decreased, that is a sell signal. RSI bounced from the overbought area. Shall RSI move upwards the Brent futures will grow, otherwise the price will decrease. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are below the metal on the 4 hour chart. The price broke all of them down after that it returned above of them. The price bounced from the 50-day moving on the daily chart.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target – 49.50. When the price consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 48.50.



DAX

General overview

The German stock market closed the day in a green zone due to strengthening of the public services sector, consumer goods and food and beverage.

Current situation

The index spent Thursday in a green zone. DAX showed a sharp growth and reached the next resistance within the hours. The resistance comes at 9760, the support exists at 9550.

The indicators recommend long positions. MACD is in the negative area; its histogram grew, that is a buy signal. RSI bounced from the oversold area and grew upwards. If the oscillator grows further, that will be another buy signal. The Moving Averages (100 and 200) direction is downwards, the 50-day moving is horizontal. The price DAX broke the 50-EMA but did not grow further.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 10000 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 10175.



S&P 500

General overview

The index continued its recovery yesterday. The oil, gas and financial sectors were in demand. Segate (the storage systems producer) development plans also supported S&P 500.

Current situation

The index recovered and was able to set a new local high at 2088. SP500 was able to grow by 1,25% during the course of trades. Now the resistance comes in at 2085, the support lies at 2070.

MACD is in the positive area, its histogram grew. If MACD keeps growing the index will keep growing. RSI is near the overbought area. If RSI declined that will be a sell signal. Shall it move upwards and the index will grow further. The index broke all moving averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. All moving averages are below of the S&P 500, that is a buy signal.

Trading recommendations


If the price fixates above the resistance 2085, it may continue the upward movement in the short term. The potential target is 2100.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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PostSubject: Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis    Sun Jul 03, 2016 10:39 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

04.07.2016

Euro

General overview

The international rating agency S&P decided to decrease the EU rating to AA level due to the Brexit. The published Business PMI in the Eurozone came in better than traders expected; as a result the euro was able to strengthen against the dollar. On Monday, the US markets will be closed amid a national holiday – Independence Day.

Current situation

The EUR/USD showed a mixed dynamic last Friday. Even though the pair grew its growing impulse faded away by the end of the trades. The euro was able to break the mark 1.1130. However it did not have strength to move higher. The new local high is at 1.1167. The level 1.1160 and the 100-day moving average limited growth of the pair. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards, that is a sell signal for now. The resistance stands at 1.1200, the support lies in at 1.1130.

MACD remained in the negative area, its histogram decreased, that is a sell signal. RSI is in the neutral area; the indicator does not give a clear signal.

Trading recommendations

A move above the resistance 1.1130 will open the way towards 1.1200. If the instrument moved down there will be a high chance to reach 1.1000.



Pound

General overview

According to Mark Carney (the Governor of the Bank of England) the regulator may lower the rate this summer. After that news the pound weakened and lost about 150 pips. The next meeting of the Central Bank is in two weeks. Most likely the regulator will pave the way for the additional incentives at the July meeting and will implement them in August.

Current situation

The pound returned to the sales. The level 1.3300 held buyers’ attempts to grow. The resistance is at 1.3300, the support comes in at 1.3100.

MACD remained in the negative area, its histogram remained at the same level. RSI approached the oversold area, that is a sell signal. The GBP/USD is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving downwards, that is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The next buyers’ stop could well be at 1.3700. A break below 1.3300 risks a decline back towards the support at 1.3100.



Yen

General overview

According to Japanese government the consumer prices continued to fall that caused a weakening of household spending in May. This creates additional pressure on the Bank of Japan which is dissatisfied with the current strengthening of the Japanese yen.

Current situation

The instrument decreased from a local high. The pair tended to return below 102.50. The resistance stands at 103.50, the support is at 102.50.

The growth of MACD slowed down. The indicator remained in the negative area, that is a sell signal. RSI is in the neutral area, the oscillator does not give signals. The USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) which are moving downwards. The pair tested the 50-day moving and bounced downwards. The 50-day moving is the closest resistance for the pair.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 102.50, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 101.40.



AUD

The Australian dollar rose by 0,63% during the Friday trades. The US dollar was stable against major currencies, while the uncertainty after a referendum in the United Kingdom persisted.

Current situation

The aussie was actively growing and was able to reach the mark of 0.7500. The price just tested the resistance and was not able to break it through. The resistance is at 0.7500, the support comes in at 0.7400.

MACD moved into the positive area. The indicator shows a divergence. RSI approached the overbought area. If the signal line moves higher that will be a buy signal, if it decreases that will be a sell signal for us. The instrument is above the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving upwards, that is a buy signal. The price moved away from the averages and may return to them soon.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 0.7500 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 0.7400, 0.7270.



GOLD

General overview

The price grew on the weakening of the US currency. A cheap dollar traditionally has a positive effect on the price of gold as it makes it cheaper for holders of foreign currencies. In addition, the UK decision to leave the EU had a strong influence on the price of gold.

Current situation

The gold slightly grew last Friday amid the weakening of the dollar. The instrument was able to set a new local high at 1341. The resistance is at 1360 now, the support comes in at 1330.

MACD is in the positive area, its histogram grew, that is a buy signal. RSI remained close to the overbought area. If the signal line gets into the area the growth will be continued. In the scenario where the oscillator falls we will get a sell signal. The price is above the Moving Averages and their direction is upwards.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1330 and 1300.



Brent

General overview

The forecasts that the major Central Banks may soften their monetary policies supported the oil futures. Besides, the sales that were connected with the end of the quarter are ended and a bullish sentiment returned to the markets.

Current situation

The oil quotations returned to a recovery. The Brent futures were able to grow by 0.76%. Now the price approached a strong psychological mark at 50.50. The Brent formed a trading range on the 4 hour chart: 46.70 – 50.65. The resistance is at 50.50, the support is at 49.50.

MACD is in the positive area, its histogram grew, that is a buy signal. RSI bounced from the overbought area. Shall RSI move upwards the Brent futures will grow, otherwise the price will decrease. The crude oil futures bounced from the 50- day moving average and grew on the 4 hour chart. The price broke through the other two movings: 100-day moving and 200-day moving averages.

Trading recommendations

We believe the instrument will remain in the current trading range 46.50 – 50.50 without new fundamental drivers. If the Brent keeps growing the price will reach 51.50.



NASDAQ

General overview

The US stock market grew on technical factors in the first half of Friday trading. The buyers received some support at the European session. The European Central Bank is considering changes in its program of bonds purchases. At the same time the head of the Bank of England hints about further monetary easing in order to overcome the economic consequences of the Brexit.

Current situation

The index spent Friday in a green zone. NASDAQ showed a growth and reached the next resistance within the hours. The resistance comes at 4440, the support exists at 4400.

The indicators still recommend long positions. MACD is in the positive area; its histogram grew, that is a buy signal. RSI grew upwards to the overbought area. If the oscillator grows further, that will be another buy signal; if its signal line decreases that will be a buy signal. The price bounced from the 100-day moving average and was able to break the 200-day moving. After the break the price remained on the 200-day moving which is horizontal. The Moving Averages (50 and 100) direction is downwards.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. After the resistance level of 4440 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance 4500 will be opened. We do not exclude the falls to 4350.



S&P 500

General overview

The stock indices finished the week with a growth by an average of 3%. The stock market received some support from Mark Carney’s statements (the Bank of England Governor). According to Mark Carney the regulator may soften its monetary policy this summer.

Current situation

The index grew and was able to set a new local high at 2100. S&P 500 was able to grow by 1,20% during the course of Friday trades. Now the resistance comes in at 2100, the support lies at 2085.

MACD is in the positive area, its histogram grew, that is a buy signal. RSI is near the overbought area. If RSI declined that will be a sell signal. Shall it move upwards we will get a buy signal. The index broke all moving averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. All moving averages are below of the S&P 500, that is a buy signal. The price may decrease soon towards the moving averages.

Trading recommendations

The level of 2100 limits the growth of the index. A cut through here will aim at the 2120 level. Alternatively, the SP500 will decrease to 2070.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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PostSubject: Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis    Mon Jul 04, 2016 11:43 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

05.07.2016

Euro

General overview

The euro regained lost ground against the US dollar, the price returned to the opening level. Initially, the euro declined due to the weak data of the investor confidence indicator from Sentix. According to the indicator investors' sentiment worsened in the Eurozone in July. The index reached 18-month low due to the increased concerns about the economic impact of the Brexit.

Current situation

The EUR/USD spent the day at the opening level. Technically the indicators are in a flat within a neutral zone. The indicators MACD and RSI are not showing a clear direction. The MACD remained at the zero line. RSI is close to the overbought area. The resistance stands at 1.1200, the support lies in at 1.1130.

The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are horizontal. The pair receives a good support from the 200-day moving average near 1.1100. The 100-day moving average is a resistance.

Trading recommendations

If the EUR/USD moves above the mark 1.1130 the euro may grow towards 1.1200. If the instrument moves down the pair may reach 1.1000.



Pound

General overview

Construction sector activity in the UK unexpectedly fell in June to a seven-year low. That news added additional concerns that the British economy slows down after the Brexit referendum.

Current situation

The pair traded at the previous week close levels. The price spent the day in a narrow flat within 1.3330 – 1.3230. The resistance is at 1.3300, the support comes in at 1.3100.

Indicators remained in a red zone. MACD is in the negative area, the histogram is at the same level it closed last week. RSI is close to the oversold area. The 50-day moving average limits the growth on the 1-hour chart. The GBP/USD is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving downwards. All indicators support the bearish trend.

Trading recommendations

Buyers seem not to have enough powder to launch the pair upwards. We expect markets to stay fairly neutral until Mark Carney gives his speech. We will be keeping a close eye on the resistance 1.3500. If the pair fixates over it the instrument may grow to 1.3700 to close the gap. Should the level 1.3200 break down and the pair may drop further to 1.2900.



Yen

General overview

The dollar slightly changed against other currencies in a quiet Monday while the markets are again cautious and this time it is all about the Fed decision to hike the rate or not. The USD/JPY continued to ignore the growth of "risk appetite" that indicated sellers’ presence in the market.

Current situation

The instrument remained at the level of 102.50 on Monday. The market showed low volatile trades due to the Independence Day celebration in the USA. The resistance stands at 103.50, the support is at 102.50.

The indicators (MACD and RSI) are in a red zone. Both indicators do not give clear signals. The USD/JPY is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) which are moving downwards. The pair tested the 50-day moving and bounced downwards. The 50-day moving is the closest resistance for the pair.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential targets are 103.50, 104.50. If the price falls it will get to 101.40.



NZD

The pair NZD/USD strengthened by 0.84% to 0.7250. Commodity currencies grew due to the oil price growth. The news that Weekly Crude Oil Stock decreased in the USA supported the Brent futures.

Current situation

The kiwi continued its recovery and was able to set a new local high at 0.7250. The resistance is at 0.7250, the support comes in at 0.7150.

MACD remained in the positive area. The positive MACD signals about buyers’ presence. RSI reached the overbought area. We prefer to buy until it stays close to the overbought level. The NZD/USD is above the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving upwards, that is a buy signal.

Trading recommendations

An uptrend will be continued as soon as the pair rises above 0.7250. A move below 0.7050 may trigger a downward movement towards testing 0.6950.



GOLD

General overview

The gold futures continued to climb, remaining near a two-year high. The fading expectations that the Fed will hike the rate this year supported the precious metal.

Current situation

The gold slightly grew due to the absence of American traders on Monday. The pair gained 1.53% and approached the lately set high at 1360. The resistance is at 1360 now, the support comes in at 1330.

Technically, indicators support the overbought zone. The MACD is growing with strong momentum, the RSI oscillator moved above the level of 70 that is a good bullish signal. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving upwards, that signals about a growth tendency.

Trading recommendations

The gold metal may continue its growth before Non-Farms. The price may break the resistance 1360 and reach 1390. If we receive positive Non-Farms the instrument may decrease below 1316.



Brent

General overview

The Brent continued its recovery yesterday. The events in Nigeria and the Norwegian oil and gas industry workers’ victory in a fight for higher wages supported the oil prices

Current situation

The oil continued its recovery on Monday. The fundamental background supported the oil futures. The price was able to reach a current resistance at 50.50 where it turned down and slightly decrease. The mark 50.50 seems to be a hard level to break. The price has recently bounced downwards four times from this level. The resistance is at 50.50, the support is at 49.50.

The indicators (MACD and RSI) remain positive. Staying in a green zone is a positive factor for buyers. The moving averages form a cross-over. The 100-day moving average broke the 200-day moving average on the 4 hour chart.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 49.50, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 48.50.



DAX

General overview

There was a low volatile trading at the European Bonds Market due to the Independence Day celebration in the USA. The European stocks traded in the red zone after a four-day rally, as the decline in shares of the Italian banks eliminated the growth in price of the mining companies securities. The weak statistics in the EU and the UK pressured the indices as well. In addition, the European automobile producers lost some positions: Fiat Chrysler shares became cheaper by 4.0%, Porsche by 3.1%, Renault and Peugeot by 2.9%.

Current situation

The index decreased from the recently sent highs at 9800. DAX30 returned below the level of 9760 and ended the day close to the mark of 9700. The resistance comes at 9760, the support exists at 9550.

The indicators (MACD and RSI) remained in a green zone. MACD slightly decreased, RSI moved from the overbought level. The staying in a green zone is a good supporting factor for the buyers. The price returned below the 50-day moving average. The 100-day moving average is a resistance for the index. The moving averages direction is downwards.

Trading recommendations

The index now seems to be heading towards its immediate support near 9550. We feel comfortable taking short-term short positions. Alternatively, there will be a break above 9760 and a growth towards 9870.



S&P 500

General overview

The excitement about the Brexit calms down and the Bonds Market in the USA is returning to the levels it was before the crisis.

Current situation

The index remained close to 2100, the level it reached last week. The resistance comes in at 2100, the support lies at 2085.

MACD is in the positive area, its histogram remained at the same levels. RSI is in the overbought area. The indicators indicate a buy signal. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are turning upwards on the 4 hour chart.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The target is the level 2120. We do not exclude the falls to 2085.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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PostSubject: Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis    Wed Jul 06, 2016 12:16 am

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

06.07.2016

Euro

General overview

The Euro weakened due to the uncertainty regarding the future of the UK and Italian banks. The Italian Government is considering banks recapitalization to overcome the current situation.

Current situation

The pair remained below the upward channel. There was an attempt to grow that failed. The pair bounced upwards from the 50-day moving average and approached the 200-day moving average on the 4 hour chart. However, the returned sellers sent the price below 1.1130. The resistance stands at 1.1130, the support lies in at 1.1000.

Technically the indicators remained in a green zone. The indicator MACD decreased. If its histogram returns into a negative area it will be a sign to sell. RSI moved away from an oversold area, which is a sell signal. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are horizontal. The 50-day moving average is a resistance.

Trading recommendations

We are looking for the support 1.1050 break and then continuation of a fall with a further target at 1.1000. Otherwise, the pair may grow 1.1200-1.1220.



Pound

General overview

The pound fell to 31-year low against the US dollar after the weak data of UK service sector. The Bank of England decided to launch new liquidity measures to support the financial sector.

Current situation

The GBP/USD remained under pressure. The pair was not able to break 1.3500 and decreased to 31-year lows. The resistance is at 1.3100, the support comes in at 1.2900.

Indicators remained in a red zone. MACD decreased, which is a sell signal. RSI entered the oversold zone, it is also a sell signal. The GBP/USD is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving downwards. All indicators support the bearish trend.

Trading recommendations


Sellers are targeting to test the psychological level 1.3000. If they succeed the pair will decrease to 1.2900.



Yen

General overview

The yen grew amid an increased demand for the safe assets. This was due to the new signs of uncertainty about the future of the UK and Italian banks.

Current situation

The USD/JPY got under pressure when traders began profit-taking. The pair decreased and set a new local low at 101.40. The resistance stands at 102.50, the support is at 101.40.

The indicators (MACD and RSI) continued giving signals to sell. MACD decreased, RSI touched the oversold area. The instrument moved from the 50-EMA on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards, it is another sell signal.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 101.40 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 100.30.



AUD/USD

General overview

The Australian Central Bank left the interest rates unchanged amid a political instability in the country and abroad.

Current situation

The price was not able to move far from 0.7500. After reaching 0.7550 the AUD fell and set a new local low at the mark 0.7450. The resistance is at 0.7500, the support comes in at 0.7400.

MACD and RSI decreased, which is a sell signal. Any further decrease will indicate sellers growing strength. The instrument approached the 50-day moving average on the 4 hour chart. This line may become a support for the price and it bounces upwards. The Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving horizontal.

Trading recommendations

The price may bounce from the level 0.7440 (the 50-EMA). In the scenario where the buyers return to the market the price will grow to 0.7550. Alternatively, if the AUD/USD does make a breakout at the level 0.7450 the price will decrease to 0.7400.



GOLD

General overview

The gold grew yesterday due to expectations that leading Central Banks will increase their incentives to prevent Brexit effect.

Current situation

The gold futures continued its growth and approached the recently set high at 1360. The resistance is at 1360, the support comes in at 1330.

Technically, indicators remained in a green zone. MACD and RSI grew which is a buy signal. The growth of indicators indicate buyers’ strength. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving upwards, it is another buy signal.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1360 and 1390.



Brent

General overview

The oil prices were under pressure as concerns over the global economy pressured the future demand of oil.

Current situation

The Brent futures were able to test a strong physiological level 50.50. After testing the level the oil quotes decreased. The Brent broke levels 49.50, 48.50 and touched 47.50. In general, the crude oil futures lost about 4% during the trades. The resistance is at 48.50, the support is at 47.50.

The indicators (MACD and RSI) became negative and ended the day in a red zone. MACD moved into the negative zone, RSI touched the oversold area, which is a sell signal. The 100-day moving average broke the 50-EMA and 200-EMA on the 4 hour chart.

Trading recommendations

If the resistance around 47.50 holds the next stop could well be at the 46.50 region. Conversely, the Brent will grow to 49.50.



NASDAQ

General overview

The global stock markets showed a negative trend yesterday. The demand for risky assets decreased and Nasdaq Composite fell by 1.13%.

Current situation

The Nasdaq returned to sales after a four-day rally. The index reversed at 4440 and fell below 4400. The Nasdaq Composite ended the day at mark 4384. The resistance comes at 4400, the support exists at 4350.

Even though MACD decreased its histogram remained in a positive zone. RSI moved away from the oversold area. Both indicators recommend short positions. The price broke the 200-EMA and touched the 100-day moving average. The 200-day moving direction is horizontal. The 50-EMA and 100-EMA are moving downwards.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to go to the support level of 4350.



S&P 500

General overview

The US indexes fell when the oil futures and the other commodities decreased. There will begin a season of finance reports in the USA soon. According to analysts, the profit of the companies included in the S&P 500 declined by 5.4% in the second quarter.

Current situation

The S&P500 was growing almost the week and stopped its rally at the mark 2100. The price reversed and lost about 0.84% during the trades. The resistance comes in at 2085, the support lies at 2070.

MACD and RSI decreased from the overbought level. Indicators recommend short positions. The index broke the 200-day moving average and approached the 100-EMA. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are horizontal on the 4 hour chart.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 2070. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 2055.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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PostSubject: Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis    Thu Jul 07, 2016 12:05 am


"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

07.07.2016

Euro

General overview

EURUSD weakened yesterday. There are no positive drivers for the euro. The retail sector in the Eurozone declined, and the euro began experiencing the effects of Brexit.

Current situation

The euro again came under pressure. This time the EUR/USD fell due to the risk aversion. The pair tried to recover yesterday, but stopped at the mark 1.1100. The immediate support is seen at 1.1000, the resistance stands at 1.1130.

The indicators recommend short positions. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards. The price touched the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The pair is below the 100-EMA and 200-EMA on the same chart.

The indicator MACD decreased. If its histogram stays in the negative area it will be a signal to sell. RSI moved away from an oversold area. If its signal line turns back to undervalued zone it will be a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

To trigger further downward movement the pair needs to fall below 1.1050. Alternatively, the EUR/USD will recover to 1.1130. We believe that the euro will remain under pressure until the UK leaves the EU.



Pound

General overview

The pound continued to fall against the US currency, despite BoE Governor (Mark Carney) clear plan on: how to support the British economy. The political vacuum in the United Kingdom is blocking any further actions to support the economy. Meanwhile, the outflow of the capital in the country is also gaining power.

Current situation

The GBP/USD remained under pressure, its main trend is down. The GBP/USD broke a strong psychological level 1.3300 and lost about 200 pp. The pair set a fresh 31-year low at the mark 1.2793. The resistance is at 1.3100, the support comes in at 1.2900.

The indicators remained in a red zone. MACD decreased, which is a sell signal. RSI remained in the oversold area, it is also a sell signal.

The GBP/USD is below the Moving Averages (50, 100 and 200) on the 4 hour chart. The Moving Averages are moving downwards. All indicators support the bearish trend.

Trading recommendations

We believe that any recovery will be short-lived and will be limited in 1.3500 region. The main trend is down. We think that the levels 1.2900 and 1.2700 are the next sellers’ targets.



Yen

General overview

The dollar fell against the yen, as British pound sales had an upward pressure on the Japanese currency. The yen also received support when traders began closing their long positions in the emerging markets.

Current situation

The pair has been correcting for 4 days in a roll. The instrument decreased as a risk aversion sentiment dominated in the financial word. The price set a new low since June 24th. The USD/JPY reached a strong psychological level 100.00. The resistance stands at 101.40, the support is at 100.00.

The indicators bounced from the oversold area in the 4 hours chart. MACD remained in the negative zone. At the same time RSI grew away from the oversold area.

The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) direction is downwards. The technical overlook is bearish.

Trading recommendations

In the event that the sellers manage to force below 100.00 the decrease will be continued to 99.00. The USD/JPY may recover to 102.50.



CAD

General overview

The Canadian dollar as a commodity currency is still under pressure due to the side effect of the British referendum.

Current situation

The pair got under pressure yesterday after reaching a new local high at 1.3050. However, sellers were stopped at 1.3000 level, which limited the further downward movement. The resistance is at 1.3000, the support comes in at 1.2900.

MACD and RSI decreased, which is a sell signal. Any further decrease will indicate sellers growing strength. The moving averages formed a cross-over in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA is a support for the pair. The moving averages direction is horizontal.

Trading recommendations

We believe that the price is likely to go to the support level of 1.2900.



GOLD

General overview

The gold has been strengthening for 6 consecutive sessions. The metal is in demand due to the risk aversion in the market after Brexit. In addition, investors are waiting for leading Central Banks to start their new easing measures, which will support gold futures.

Current situation


The gold futures continued its growth and set a new high at 1374. This is the highest mark since 2014. After reaching 1374 the pair started a consolidation and decreased to 1360. The resistance is at 1390, the support comes in at 1360.

Technically, indicators remained in a green zone. MACD and RSI grew which is a buy signal. RSI is in the overbought zone. The indicator will give a buy signal till it stays in the current zone.

The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving upwards in the 4 hours chart. The price resides above them. In the 1 hours chart the price is decreasing to the 50-EMA.

Trading recommendations

The fundamental factors support buyers. We presume that any correction will be short-lived. In the potential scenario, the next stop for the XAUUSD could well be around 1390. A break below 1350 will be followed by moving down to the support level 1330.



Brent

General overview

The oil prices stabilized after the sharp losses of the day before. However, Brent remained in the red zone. The oil declined when investors turned their attention to the safe assets due to renewed concerns about the global economic prospects.

Current situation

The Brent recovered after a 3 day decreased. The price was able to grow by 1.50%. The level 49.50 stooped its further growth. The resistance is at 49.50, the support is at 48.50.

The indicators (MACD and RSI) remained negative and ended the day in a red zone. RSI bounced from the oversold area. If it grows further it will be a buy signal for us. Sellers will prevail till MACD remains in the negative zone.

The price is below the moving averages (50, 100 and 200) in the 4 hours chart. The instrument touched the 50-EMA and bounced downwards. The moving averages are moving horizontal.

Trading recommendations

If the price breaks below 47.50 the Brent will decrease to 46.50 region. Conversely, the quotes will continue their recovery to 50.50 area.



DAX

General overview

Most European stock indices fell yesterday due to a new wave of concerns about the global economy after Brexit.

Current situation

The index spent the day in a red zone. DAX30 lost about 1.67% during the trades. The price fell from 9515 and stopped at the mark 9287. This level seems to be a hard barrier for the index as it has been bounced from it many times. The resistance comes at 9550, the support exists at 9400.

MACD remained in the negative area. The indicator will be bearish until it leaves the negative zone. RSI bounced from the overbought area. If the signal line grows further it will be a buy signal.

The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards in the 4 hours chart. The 200 and 100 EMAs direction is horizontal in the 1 hours chart. The 50-EMA has broken the 200 and 100 EMAs downwards.

Trading recommendations

The break above 9500 will strengthen buyers’ positions. The price may grow to 9550. Alternatively DAX will decrease to 9250.



S&P 500

General overview

The commodity sector showed the most notable selling in the stock market. The industrial group Danaher showed the largest price change (DHR, -21.4%). The company shares fell as the company shared some parts of its business to a new company.

Current situation

The index showed mixed dynamics, the price was decreasing and growing at the yesterday’s trades. However, buyers won that struggle and SP500 was able to grow by 0.30%. The resistance comes in at 2100, the support lies at 2085.

MACD returned to a growth. The indicator will show a buy signal till it stays in the positive area. RSI reversed to a growth which is a buy signal. The price bounced from the 100-EMA and broke the 200-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The price will grow till it stays above the moving averages (50, 100 and 200) in the 4 hours chart.

Trading recommendations

SP500 may continue its recovery. Buyers’ target is the level 2100. In the alternative scenario the instrument will decrease to 2070.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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PostSubject: Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis    Fri Jul 08, 2016 6:33 am

]"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

08.07.2016

Euro

General overview

The euro decreased against the dollar after the weak Industrial PMI in Germany. The index showed a decrease by 1.3%.

Current situation

The pair remained under pressure. The EUR/USD is in a descending channel. Its low limit resides at the mark 1.1035, its upper limit is at 1.1111. Even though the instrument grew to the local high at 1.1111 on Wednesday the euro failed to reach the key resistance at 1.1130. The immediate support is seen at 1.1050, the resistance stands at 1.1130.

The pair traded below the 200-EMA which is currently seen as a resistance in the 1 hours chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs direction is downwards in the 4 hours chart, it indicates a downtrend. The RSI decreased and is below the 50 level. MACD is in neutral area, close to the centerline. The indicators are still bearish.

Trading recommendations

The EUR/USD is under pressure. A break below 1.1050 would open the door to 1.1000. Otherwise the price will grow to 1.1130.



Pound

General overview

On Thursday the pound made an attempt to grow from the record lows after a positive Industrial PMI publication. However, investors remained cautious regarding the future of the UK economy that still pressures the pound.

Current situation

The British currency remained inside a short bearish channel. The GBP/USD returned some of its losses during the European session on Thursday. However, the recovery was short-lived and it dropped back to the nearest support 1.2900. The pair is still below the mark 1.30. Investor sentiment towards the pound is still negative. The resistance is at 1.3100, the support comes in at 1.2900.

The EMA50, EMA100 and EMA200 kept decreasing in the 1 hours chart, which is a sell signal. The EMA50 acts as a resistance for the price. MACD is below its centerline, its histogram decreased. RSI remained close to the oversold area. If the oscillator enters the oversold area, it will be a sell signal. The indicators recommend short positions.

Trading recommendations

The pound remains weak as political uncertainty in the UK is still high. The next target for this pair is the support level of 1.270



Yen

General overview

The yen slightly strengthened after the Japanese regulator’s statements. The BoJ will preserve the quantitative and qualitative easing programs together with the negative rates till they reach the targeted inflation of 2%.

Current situation

The yen traded sideways yesterday. The pair was in a narrow sideways channel between 101.20 and 100.60. The instrument seems not to have enough power to break the strong level 100.00 as bulls defend this psychological mark. The technical outlook is negative for the pair. The resistance stands at 101.40, the support is seen at 100.00.

The price is below the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are moving downwards. The USD/JPY traded below the 50-EMA in the 1 hours chart which acts as a resistance for the instrument.

MACD remained negative, its histogram remained at the same levels. RSI remained at the same level as well. Its signal line is close to the oversold area.

Trading recommendations

In the event that the sellers manage to force below 100.00 the decrease will be continued to 99.00. The USD/JPY may recover to 102.50.



AUD/USD

General overview

The Australian dollar decreased when the rating agency S&P downgraded the Australian credit rating. The rating was downgraded from stable to negative.

Current situation

The AUD/USD decreased after wining back some of its losses on Wednesday. The instrument traded in a descending channel where the pair moved from its upper limit yesterday. The mark 0.7540 remains the key resistance for the pair which is defended by sellers as the pair has bounced from the level the second time within a week. The resistance is at 0.7500, the support comes in at 0.7400.

The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving upwards. The price is approaching the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart.

MACD decreased, if its histogram enters the negative zone it will be a sell signal. RSI is below the 50 level. If its signal line decreases we will get a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The fundamentals pressured the Australian dollar. The price is expected to fall towards 0.7400 (the 200-EMA).



GOLD

General overview

On Thursday, the yellow metal traded near 28-month high. The unemployment reports in the USA came in better than expected. That news supported the dollar and slowed down the growth of the gold.

Current situation

The gold decreased on Thursday after a rally to its highest since 2014 on Wednesday. The gold futures lost about 0.50% during the course of trades. However, the pair was able to return some of its losses. The resistance is at 1390, the support comes in at 1360.

MACD and RSI decreased from the oversold area. However, the indicators remained in a green zone. If RSI returns into the overbought zone it will be a buy signal. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving upwards in the 4 hours chart. The XAU/USD bounced upwards from the 100-EMA in the 1 hours chart. The 50-EMA acts as a resistance for the price.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The target is the level 1390.



Brent

General overview

The Brent returned into the red zone when Crude Oil Stocks change report showed a decrease that coincided with investors' expectations. Analysts remained disappointed as they expected a stronger drop.

Current situation

The Brent futures dropped from 49.50 to 46.50 on Thursday. The instrument lost about 300 pp and stopped its fall at 46.15. The resistance exists at 47.50, the support lies at 46.50.

The indicators (MACD and RSI) do not give a clear signal. The overall picture remained bearish.
The price is below the moving averages (50, 100 and 200) in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages are moving downwards.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 46.50, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 45.30.



Nasdaq

Current situation

The index consolidated trading close to the level 4440. Nasdaq traded in s sideways after a Wednesday’s rally. The resistance comes at 4440, the support exists at 4400.

The indicators are in the green zone and recommend long positions. MACD is in the positive area; its histogram remained at the same level, it is a buy signal. RSI is close to the overbought area. If the oscillator grows further, that will be a buy signal. The 200-EMA acts as a support for the index and does not let it fall below in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA direction is horizontal. The 50-EMA is turning upwards, the 100-EMA is moving downwards.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 4440 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 4350.



S&P 500

General overview

Strong Labor market reports in the USA supported the Bonds Market which grew on Thursday.

Current situation

The index showed mixed dynamics on Thursday. The pair made an attempt to grow during the day and fell in the American session. The overall picture remained bullish. The resistance comes in at 2100, the support lies at 2085.

The indicators are in the green zone. MACD is in the positive area; its histogram remained at the same level, it is a buy signal. RSI is close to the overbought area. If the oscillator grows further, it will be a buy signal. The 200-EMA acts as a support for the S&P 500 in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA direction is horizontal. The 50-EMA is turning upwards, the 100-EMA is moving downwards.

Trading recommendations

The index S&P 500 decrease may be continued. If the SP500 index breaks the level of 2085 we expect the downward movement to 2070.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman


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PostSubject: Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis    Sun Jul 10, 2016 10:57 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

11.07.2016

Euro

General overview

The USA labor report supported the dollar. The Non-Farm Payrolls showed 287K versus the forecasted 175K. However, the unemployment rate grew from 4,7% to 4,9%.

Current situation

The pair remained under pressure. The Non-Farm supported the dollar which was able to grow by 120pp. However, its growth was short-lived and the pair returned to a decrease. The immediate support is seen at 1.1050, the resistance stands at 1.1130.

MACD is in the negative area, the histogram little changed since the end of the last week. The indicator shows the sellers’ strong positions. RSI approached the oversold area. If the oscillator enters the oversold area, it will be a sell signal.

The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) direction is downwards in the 4 hours chart. In the 1 hours chart the price touched the 50-EMA and bounced from the 100-EMA.

Trading recommendations

We recommend short positions. A downtrend will be continued as soon, as the pair drops below the support level 1.1000.



Pound

General overview

The pound grew against the dollar on Friday after a strong Trade Balance report. Investors’ concerns regarding the Brexit faded for a while.

Current situation

The pair little changed since the last week. The GBP/USD traded at the support 1.2900 last Friday. The instrument is in the descending channel, at its lower limit. The pound is consolidating after a sharp drop. The resistance is at 1.3100, the support comes in at 1.2900.

MACD is in the negative area that indicates the sellers’ strong positions. RSI rebounded from the oversold area. If the oscillator enters the oversold area, it will be a sell signal. Its growth will weaken the sellers’ positions.

The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards in the 4 hours chart. The pound is at the 50-EMA in the 1 hours chart. The 100-EMA acts as a resistance for the instrument.

Trading recommendations

We preserve a bearish outlook for the pair. After the 1.2900 support break the price may fall to 1.2700. Alternatively, the GBP/USD may recover to 1.3300.



Yen

General overview

The dollar strengthened after a strong Non-Farm Payrolls report. Despite the positive Non-Farm the USA economy remained under pressure.

Current situation

The USD/JPY remained in the descending channel in the 4 hors chart. The price is in a flat on the level 100.00. The resistance stands at 101.40, the support is seen at 100.00.

The price is below the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs which are moving downwards in the 4 hours chart. The instrument tested the 100-EMA and bounced from it below the 50-EMA in the 1 hours chart.

MACD remained negative that indicates the sellers’ strong positions. RSI is close to the oversold area. If the oscillator enters the oversold area, that will be a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The price is likely to stay in a flat 101.40-100.00. We do not exclude an upward correction. If the pair breaks 101.40 up it will open the way to the level of 102.50.



CAD

General overview

The unemployment rate unexpectedly decreased in Canada in June.

Current situation

The CAD is in an ascending channel, near its upper limit. The pair made an attempt to break the level 1.3100, however, the attempt failed. The price bounced from the resistance 1.3100 downwards. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are horizontal in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 1.3100, the support comes in at 1.3000.

MACD is in the positive area that indicates the buyers’ strong positions. RSI is close to the overbought area. If the oscillator enters the overbought area, we expect the growth continuation.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target – 1.2900. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 1.2800.



GOLD

General overview

The gold quotes decreased after a strong Labour market report in the USA. However, the decrease was short-lived and the gold grew back due to uncertainty about the Brexit results.

Current situation

The gold futures remained near the 31 year highs. There were volatile trades on Friday after the fundamental news from the USA. The USA published a strong Non-Farm report. However, the report did not weaken the metal. The XAUUSD renewed local lows at 1335 and returned to its highs in the 1370 region. The resistance is at 1360, the support comes in at 1330.

MACD is in the positive area; its histogram growth will indicate the buyers’ positions strength. RSI is close to the overbought area. If the oscillator enters the overbought area, it will be a buy signal.

The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving upwards in the 4 hours chart. The XAUUSD tested and bounced upwards from the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA acts as a support for the price.

Trading recommendations

The trend is objectively bearish, however, the price is overvalued and the XAUUSD may start a correction soon. If the pair grows its next stop could be at 1390. If the yellow metal falls the level 1330 will become the sellers’ target.



Brent

General overview

The uncertainty about the global economy pressured the oil futures. The Brent was volatility, the price declined due to an excess of the petroleum products and an economy growth slowdown. However, the disruptions with the oil supplies and expectations that the world oil reserves will be decreased supported the futures.

Current situation

The Brent has been under pressure since the beginning of the summer. The instrument is at the low limit of the descending channel. The price is at the key support 46.50. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downward in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA is a key resistance for the pair. The resistance exists at 47.50, the support lies at 46.50.

MACD histogram decreased that indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI is close to the oversold area. If the oscillator remains at the same levels, we expect the downward movement continuation.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 47.50 and 48.50.



DAX

General overview

The German stock market grew on Friday. The technology, media and construction sectors strengthened most of all. The shares of ThyssenKrupp AG were the growth leaders among the DAX 30 index components. The shares gained 6.47%.

Current situation

The German DAX slowed down its growth last Friday. The index is in a consolidation in the 1 hours chart.

MACD is close the centerline that indicates the sellers’ positions weakness. RSI rebounded from the oversold area that also supported buyers.

The 200-EMA stopped the DAX growth, the 100-EMA acts as a support for the price. The pair recovered to the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart which acts as a resistance for the index. The resistance comes at 9760, the support exists at 9550.

Trading recommendations

Although the pair seemed to continue with the recovery its growth slowed down. To trigger additional upward momentum the index needs to break the current resistance at 9625. Alternatively, the DAX will decrease towards 9400.



S&P 500

General overview

The American Band Market grew last Friday after a strong Non-Farm Payrolls release. The shares of JPMorgan, Wells Fargo и Bank of America grew by 1-2%.

Current situation

The positive news from the USA supported the index. The SP500 grew with a gap just after the Labour market release. The instrument set a new local high at 2125. Now the price reached the pre-Brexit levels.

The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are turning upwards. The resistance comes in at 2120, the support lies at 2100.

MACD is increasing that indicates the buyers’ positions strength. RSI is in the overbought area. If the oscillator remains at the same levels, it will be a buy signal.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 2120 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 2140.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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PostSubject: Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis    Tue Jul 12, 2016 7:25 am

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

12.07.2016

Euro

General overview

The strong US employment data supported the dollar. The labour market continued to encourage investors that the USA economy will keep recovering.

Current situation

The EUR/USD has been trading in a range for 3 weeks now. Yesterday the pair remained under pressure in the red zone, the trades were neutral. The resistance is at 1.1130, the support comes in at 1.1050.

The indicators recommend short positions. MACD is in the negative area that confirms sellers’ strength. RSI is close to the oversold area. If the oscillator continues to grow, it will be a buy signal.

The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) direction is downwards in the 4 hours chart which is a sell signal. The price broke the 50-EMA and tested the 100-EMA which limited its growth in the 1 hours chart.

Trading recommendations

Even though the EUR/USD is neutral the pair is still in a red zone. We believe that the instrument will remain there for a while. A downtrend will start as soon as the pair drops below the support level 1.1000 (a strong psychological level).



Pound


General overview

The unexpectedly strong employment report strengthened the US dollar against its major counterparts. The growth of the dollar pressured the British pound. The Bank of England will meet this week and the regulator may lower the rate from 0.50% to 0.25%. This news will have a strong impact on the pound in the coming days.

Current situation

The pair pond/dollar remained under pressure. There is a downward trend on the daily chart. The pair is in a descending channel in the 4 hours chart. Yesterday the pair tested the mark of 1.2840 but failed to fixate at it and returned above the level of 1.2900. The indicators recommend short positions. The resistance is at 1.3100, the support comes in at 1.2900.

MACD is in the negative area. The indicator may cross the centerline upwards. If the indicator gets into the positive area it will give us a buy signal. RSI is growing which is a buy signal.

The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) direction is downwards in the 4 hours chart which is a sell signal. The price broke the 50 and 100 EMAs in the 1 hours chart. The 100-EMA acts as a resistance and does not let the pound to grow.

Trading recommendations

The current rebound above 1.2900 should be considered corrective. The pair traded sideways while waiting for the new drivers. If the pair manages to make a breakout of 1.3100 it may grow towards 1.3300. Once we break below the 1.2900 level, we think that the 1.2700 level will be next.



Yen

General overview

Machinery Orders unexpectedly fell in Japan. The strong yen and weak demand undermined corporate profits and spending plans in the country. The unexpected decrease of Machinery Orders indicates a slowdown in the investments.

Current situation

The pair USD/JPY recovered and gained about 2,11% yesterday. The instrument stopped its climbing at the 102.80 area. The resistance stands at 103.50, the support is seen at 102.50.

The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are moving downwards in the 4 hours chart which is a sell signal. Yesterday the instrument broke through the 50-EMA and 100-EMA downwards in the 4 hours chart. The USD/JPY broke the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs which are turning upwards in the 1 hours chart.

Indicators are moving in the green area. MACD may cross the centerline upwards and move into the positive area. Its growth will indicate the buyers’ strength. RSI is close to the overbought area. If the oscillator continues its growth it will be a buy signal.

Trading recommendations

Buyers have the ball now. We believe the growth will be continued. The pair may grow to the resistance level 103.50. After breaking 103.50 the buyers may advance to 104.50.



NZD/USD

General overview

The New Zealand dollar weakened against the US dollar, the NZD / USD pair lost about 0.93%. Oil prices pressured commodity currencies due to the recovery of drilling activity recovery in the US.

Current situation

The sellers took control over the market. The pair NZD/USD finished the day a red zone, the NZD lost about 1,07% on Monday. The resistance is at 0.7250, the support is seen at 0.7150.

MACD decreased that indicated that buyers’ positions weakened. RSI left the overbought area and it is in the neutral zone now. The decrease of the oscillator indicates the sellers’ strength.

The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are growing in the 4 hours chart which is a buy signal. The quotes broke the 50-EMA and stopped at the 100-EMA in the 1 hours chart. The 100-EMA acts as a support now.

Trading recommendations

According to the daily chart the trend is objectively bullish. However, we recommend going short now with the first target – 0.7150 (the 50-EMA). We will buy the price from the lower levels. The price may rebound from the 0.7150 level to grow to 0.7250.



GOLD

General overview

On Monday, gold futures rose while trading to 28-months high. According to the market rumors the Fed will remain cautious regarding its interest rates, despite the positive employment reports.
Current situation

Even though the price lost about 1,04% yesterday the gold quotations remained in the green zone. The pair showed a low volatility on Monday. The price was trading between the levels 1355 and 1374. The resistance is at 1360, the support comes in at 1330.

The indicators showed a growth continuation on the Daily chart. MACD decreased that indicates the buyers’ weakness. RSI is in a neutral zone giving no signal.

The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are moving upwards in the 4 hours chart which is a buy signal. The gold broke the 50-EMA and stopped at the 100-EMA in the 1 hours chart. The 100-EMA acts as a support for the pair for now.

Trading recommendations


We expect the 1360 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1390. We do not exclude pull-backs to 1330 and 1300.



Brent


General overview

Investors are waiting for oil reports and Chinese GDP publication.

Current situation

The buyers tried to raise the oil price yesterday but failed to succeed. The Brent stopped around the 47th figure. During the American session sellers returned to the market and the price fell below the level 46.50. The resistance is at 46.50, the support is at 45.30.

The indicators are in the red zone. The MACD histogram decreased. RSI is close to the overbought area. If the indicators remain at the same levels, it will be a sell signal.

The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards in the 4 hours chart. The price is below the EMAs, it is a sell signal. The Brent futures touched the 50-EMA and bounced downwards from it in the 1 hours chart.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the level of 46.50, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 45.30.



NASDAQ

General overview

The major US stock indexes rose on Monday amid an increased confidence in the US economy. Investors received the proof of the USA economy recovery after the impressive employment data release last Friday. In addition, Labor Market Conditions Index in the USA moderately improved in June which supported the index as well.

Current situation

The index NASDAQ continued its growth on Monday. The index was supported by Non-Farm release which was published last Friday. The resistance comes at 4600, the support exists at 4550.

The general trend is up at the Daily chart. Indicators are in the green zone. MACD grew that indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is in the overbought area, it is also a buy signal.
The technical picture was mixed yesterday. The speedy 50-EMA broke through the 100-EMA and approached the 200 EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 100 and 200-EMAs are horizontal. The 1 hours chart showed another picture. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are moving upwards. The 50-EMA acts as a support for the quotes.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The buyers’ target is the level 4600.



S&P 500

General overview

The unexpected growth of the Non-Farm Payrolls allowed the S&P 500 to set a record high. There is no resistance now as the index has never been this high before. All major US stock indexes were able to recover to the pre-Brexit levels.

Current situation

The S&P 500 gapped upwards at the Monday trades opening. After that the instrument continued its rally which it started last Friday. The resistance comes in at 2140, the support exists at 2120.

Technically, the sentiment held as bullish. MACD is in the green zone that indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is in the overbought area, it is also a buy signal.

The 50-EMA broke upwards the 100 and 200 EMAs in the 4 hours chart which is a buy signal. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are moving upwards in the 1 hour chart. The 50-EMA acts as a support for the instrument.

Trading recommendations

As bulls have the ball now the growth will be continued. The levels 2140 and 2150 are the next buyers’ targets. We do not exclude pull-backs towards the mark 2100.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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PostSubject: Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis    Wed Jul 13, 2016 7:10 am

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

13.07.2016

Euro

General overview

While the markets were analyzing the latest USA Labour Market report, the dollar fell against other major currencies. Investors changed their focus from the Brexit and its consequences to the upcoming Central Banks meetings.

Current situation

The pair EUR/USD rebounded upward from the level 1.1050 and tested the resistance level 1.1130. However the price slightly fell to the level 1.1100 by the end of the trades. The market will present a modest positive tone in the short term. The resistance is at 1.1130, the support comes in at 1.1050.

MACD remained in the negative territory. The indicator is ready to leave it. The histogram is at the centerline. Its growth will show the sellers’ weakness and buyers’ strength. RSI is in the neutral zone giving no signal.

The technical indicators have retreated from the overbought territory. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) direction is downwards in the 4 hours chart which is a sell signal. The price broke the 50-EMA and tested the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. However the 100-EMA rejected the pair downwards. The price is between the 50-EMA and 100-EMA that act as a support and a resistance. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are turning upwards in the 1 hours chart that may become a buy signal.

Trading recommendations

The pair is under pressure. If the EUR/USD does make a breakout at that level 1.1050 the instrument may decrease to 1.1000.



Pound

General overview

The news that Theresa May may become the next Prime Minister supported the pound. This news lowered the political uncertainty which followed the Brexit. However, the pound remained under pressure expecting the possible rate hike this Thursday.

Current situation

The British pound recovered and bounced from the post-Brexit 31-year low at 1.2790. The instrument reached the fresh 1-week high at 1.3300 during the course of the day. The pair gained more than 250 pips throughout the day and left the resistance 1.3100 behind. However, technically, the GBP remained under bearish pressure. The resistance is at 1.3300, the support comes in at 1.3100.

MACD crossed the zero line upwards and moved to the positive zone that indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is above 70 and is overbought which also supports buyers. If the oscillator remains in the overbought area, it will strengthen the bulls’ positions.

The pound broke the 50-EMA and approached the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 1 hour chart showed that the instrument broke the 50, 100 EMAs and headed higher and already above the 200 EMA.

Trading recommendations

In the potential scenario, the next stop for the GBP/USD could well be around 1.3500 that acts as a strong resistance for the pound.



Yen

General overview

Shinzo Abe's victory in the recent elections did not support the yen. The yen remained under bearish pressure waiting for the fresh stimulus package. Risk appetite also put pressure on the yen.

Current situation

The yen fell to its lowest levels in over two weeks against the dollar. The pair USD/JPY continued its growth and broke the resistance levels of 103.50 and 104.50. Yesterday the pair showed a growth by 2,31%. The resistance stands at 105.30, the support is seen at 104.50.

The indicators MACD and RSI kept heading north in the 4 hours chart. MACD is in the positive area. The histogram continued it growth that indicates buyers’ strength. RSI is in the overbought territory which strengthened the buyers’ positions.

The price broke the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs and headed further upwards in the 4 hours chart. The EMAs are turning upwards after the price.

Trading recommendations

Buyers still control the market. We are looking for the resistance 105.30 break and then continuation of a growth with a further target at 106.00.



AUD/USD

General overview

The AUD/USD presented a stable growth despite the Brexit results. The rate in the country is the one of the highest in the world and its economy is one of the most stable. The AUD also gets support from the upcoming stimulus measures in Japan.

Current situation

The Australian dollar as a commodity currency jumped as risk appetite returned to the markets. The price grew in the ascending channel and reached its upper limit. The AUD/USD broke through the level of 0.7600 upwards in the 4 hours chart. The resistance is at 0.7700, the support comes in at 0.7600.

MACD is in the positive area and continued its growth that indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI approached the overbought area that also supports upward trend.

The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are growing in the 4 hours chart which is a buy signal.

Trading recommendations


The buyers need to break above 0.7700 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 0.7800 will be opened after this breakthrough.



GOLD

General overview

The gold futures showed negative dynamics due to the possible stimulus measures in Japan and due to the decreased demand for the safe assets.

Current situation

The gold quotations decreased after the consolidation below the level of 1360. The price dropped by 1,50% and tested the support level 1330. The resistance is at 1360, the support comes in at 1330.

MACD is in the negative territory which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI is in the oversold zone which is also a sell signal.

The price broke the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in the 1 hours chart. The moving averages are turning downwards.

Trading recommendations


If the pair manages to make a breakout of the mark 1330 the gold may fall to 1316. Alternatively, the pair will grow to 1360.



Brent

General overview

The Brent was steadily growing during the course of day. The decrease of the dollar together with the problems with the oil supplies from Africa and Middle East supported the futures.

Current situation

The Brent quotations sharply grew by 4,93% and broke through the levels 46.50 and 47.50. The price tested the resistance level of 48.50 by the end of the trades. The resistance is at 48.50, the support is at 47.50.

MACD histogram is in the negative area. MACD grows that indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is close to the overbought area that confirms buyers’ strength in the market.

According to the 4 hours chart the price tested the 50-EMA, but failed to grow further. The Brent futures broke the 50 and 100 EMAs and tested the 200-EMA in the 1 hours chart. The 50 and 100 EMAs are turning upwards, the 200-EMA acts as a resistance.

Trading recommendations


After the level of 48.50 breakthrough upward the growth potential target is 49.50. If the price falls it will get to 47.50.



DAX

General overview

The European stock markets have been growing for 4 sessions in a line. The market was supported by the upcoming stimulus measures from the BoJ and BoE together with a decrease of the political tensions in the UK.

Current situation

The index DAX sharply increased and showed a growth by 1,33% on Tuesday. The price approached the important level of 10000. The resistance comes at 10000, the support exists at 9750.

The MACD histogram is in the positive area that indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is in the overbought area that also supports buyers.

The price is above the 200 EMA in the 4 hours chart which acts as a support. The 50 and 200 EMAs are turning upwards.

Trading recommendations

Technically the index is overbought. We expect a correction towards 9760 where the price may get a support and grow back to 10000.



S&P 500

General overview

The USA Bonds Market was positive yesterday. The S&P 500 climbed to a new all-time high on Tuesday. The signs of the USA economy strength, the oil recovery and the cautious Fed position regarding the rate hike supported the index.

Current situation

The index S&P 500 continued to grow on Tuesday. The price tested the resistance level 2140 and then broke it through. Later the price tested the level 2150. The resistance comes in at 2150, the support lies at 2140.

MACD remained in the positive area that indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is in the overbought area that also supports an upward trend.

The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are moving upwards. The 50-EMA broke the 100 and 200 EMAs upwards which is a buy signal.

Trading recommendations

The pair is close to the strong resistance 2150. If the pair breaks it we expect the growth to 2180. We also do not exclude the downward correction to 2120.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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PostSubject: Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis    Wed Jul 13, 2016 11:54 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

14.07.2016

Euro

General overview


The dollar is stable against the euro. Investors are waiting for the new signals regarding the USA economy.

Current situation


The euro recovered during the course of the day, the pair gained about 0.46%. The instrument remained in a short-term descending channel; the price approached its upper limit. The resistance is at 1.1130, the support comes in at 1.1050.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the positive territory, that will indicate buyers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the negative area the sellers will take control over the market. RSI is in the neutral zone giving no signal.

The price broke the 50-EMA and 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The EUR/USD approached the 200-EMA which acts as a resistance for the pair.

Trading recommendations


The price is likely to remain in a flat limited by 1.1130-1.1050 levels.



Pound

General overview

The news that Cameron officially resigned as the UK Prime Minister and Theresa May took over supported the pound. That news decreased the political uncertainty which followed the Brexit referendum. The pound is under pressure, the pair is waiting for the BoE decision regarding the rate.

Current situation

The GBP/USD decreased after a short-lived consolidation during the Asian session on Wednesday. The pair lost about 0.65% yesterday. The instrument remained in a descending channel, its upper limit is at the mark 1.33, its lower limit is at 1.2830. The resistance is at 1.3300, the support comes in at 1.3100.

MACD is in the positive area. The histogram fell which indicates the buyers’ weakness. Indicator RSI rebounded from the overbought area that also supports sellers.

The 100-EMA is a resistance in the 4 hours chart. The price rebounded from the 100-EMA and returned to the 50-EMA which acts as a support.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.3300, the next one is 1.3500.



Yen

General overview

The yen was unstable on Wednesday and fell against the dollar when the risk aversion returned to the market. Traders will keep a close eye on news flow surrounding the expected additional fiscal stimulus.

Current situation

The pair consolidated after the recent rally. The USD/JPY remained in a low side channel limited by 104.00 and 104.90. The resistance is at 104.50, the support comes in at 103.50.

MACD is in the positive area. The MACD remained at the same level which confirmed uncertainty in the market. RSI is in the overbought area. If its signal line decreases that will be a buy signal.

The pair is at the 200-EMA which acts as a support. The 50-EMA and the 100-EMA are below the price and are turning upwards.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will consolidate around the level of 104.50. We do not exclude the growth to 105.30.



USD/CAD

General overview

The Bank of Canada held the rates steady on Wednesday, although declining oil prices appeared to limit the CAD.

Current situation

The CAD/USD broke the 50-EMA and snapped the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The quotes rebounded from the 100-EMA which acts as a support. The resistance is at 1.3000, the support comes in at 1.2900.

MACD is in the positive area. Its histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI approached the oversold area that also supports the sellers’ strength.

The pair decreased and lost about 0.60% yesterday. The instrument is in a short-term ascending channel and the pair approached its lower limit.

Trading recommendations


The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.2900 and 1.2800.



GOLD

General overview

Yesterday the gold grew as investors returned to the yellow metal as a safe heaven asset when the price dropped on Tuesday.

Current situation

The pair remained in a sideways. The gold futures consolidated after a sharp decrease the other day. The instrument remained in a narrow channel 1335 – 1346. The resistance is at 1360, the support comes in at 1330.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram grew which indicates the sellers’ weakness. Indicator RSI rebounded from the oversold area. Its signal line moved upward which confirms the strength of buyers.

The price broke the 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart, it moved downwards and rebounded from the 100-EMA. The 50-EMA and the 100-EMA are moving horizontal, the 200-EMA is moving upwards.

Trading recommendations


If the price fixates below the support 1330, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1300. If the price grows it will get to 1360.



Brent

General overview

The Brent decreased when the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that the oversupply on world markets threatens the price recovery. The American Petroleum Institute (API) release showed an unexpected growth in the US stocks.

Current situation

The Brent was under pressure, the instrument lost about 4.50%. The price is in a descending channel, the oil futures decreased to the lower limit. The resistance is at 46.50, the support comes in at 45.30.

MACD histogram is in the negative area which indicates the sellers’ strength. If MACD continues its decrease, bears’ positions will strengthen. RSI is close to the overbought area which confirms a downtrend.

The price rebounded from the 50-EMA downwards. The moving averages are turning downwards in 4 the hours chart.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the growth towards 47.50, further on we expect a fall to 45.30.



NASDAQ

General overview

The Bonds Market in the USA snapped the intraday highs on the trades opening on Wednesday. However, the growth was short-lived and the price corrected downwards as investors took a pause after a 3 day rally. The Nasdaq moved into the positive territory this year.

Current situation

The price is in a consolidation after a one week rally. The index is above the support 4550. The index quotes are in the narrow range 4560 – 4585. The resistance is at 4600, the support is seen at 4550.

The MACD histogram is in the positive area. Its histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI came out from the overbought area and moved downwards that also supports sellers.

The 50-EMA crossed the 100 and 200 EMAs upwards which indicated the buyers’ strength.

Trading recommendations


We expect the index NASDAQ to continue a consolidation at the current levels. We do not exclude a slight decrease towards 4550 and 4500.



S&P 500

General overview

The weakened political tensions in Japan and the UK and the hopes that the Central Banks will launch the new stimulus program will support the market.

Current situation

The index is overbought and is in a consolidation phase. The new historical high is at 2140. The instrument is between the current support and the resistance. Yesterday the SP500 lost about 0.10%. The resistance comes in at 2140, the support lies at 2140.

MACD is in the positive area. Its histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI left the overbought area that also supports sellers.

The 50-EMA crossed the 100 and 200 EMAs upwards which indicated the buyers’ strength.

Trading recommendations


The index S&P 500 may continue the consolidation at the current marks. The potential decrease target is the level of 2120.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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PostSubject: Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis    Fri Jul 15, 2016 12:33 am


"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

15.07.2016

Euro

General overview

The euro strengthened against the dollar amid the risk aversion. Traders became less cautious regarding the Brexit consequences as well. The USA published the Initial Jobless Claims that came out better than the forecast.

Current situation

The pair jumped to fresh weekly highs after the BoE’s decision to keep the rate unchanged and fell back on the news from the USA. The new daily high is at 1.1161. The resistance is seen at 1.1130, the support lies at 1.1050.

MACD was positive, its histogram grew which indicates the buyers’ strength. RSI is in the neutral zone giving no signal.

The price broke the 200-EMA which rejected it downwards in the 4 hours chart. The 200-EMA acts as a resistance for the pair now.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the trades between the levels of 1.1130 and 1.1050.



Pound

General overview

The pound grew by 200 points when the BoE decided to keep the rate unchanged. The regulator probably left the door open to launch the stimulus for August.

Current situation

The BoE’s decision triggered a sharp short-term rally that boosted the GBP/USD to a two-week high level. The new daily high is at around 1.3500. The resistance is at 1.3500, the support exists at 1.3300.

MACD is still positive. If MACD remains in the positive territory, buyers’ positions will strengthen. Indicator RSI rebounded from the overbought area that supports sellers.

The instrument remained below the bearish 100-EMA which acts as a resistance in the 4 hours chart. The price rebounded from the 100-EMA and remained close to it.

Trading recommendations

The pair shows a tendency to grow. In this potential scenario, the pair will grow to 1.3700. Alternatively, the price will drop to 1.2900.



Yen

General overview

The dollar grew above yen for the first time in three weeks. The yen weakened waiting for new fiscal stimulus from BoJ. The Japanese Bonds Market growth pushed the yen as well.

Current situation

Technically, a bullish tone persists in the 4 hours chart. The USD/JPY pair kept rallying on hopes that the Japanese regulator will launch a stimulus program soon. Yesterday the instrument set a new local high at 106.00. Now the pair is overbought and we expect a bounce backwards. The resistance is at 106.00, the support comes in at 105.30.

MACD remained in the positive area. The histogram grew which is a buy signal. RSI is close to the overbought area. If its signal line decreases that will be a sell signal.

The pair pushed away from the 200-EMA which acts as a support in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA and the 100-EMA are below the price and are turning upwards which is a buy signal.

Trading recommendations

The pair may consolidate at the current levels. If the pair breaks the level of 105.30 downwards we expect a fall to 104.50.



AUD/USD

General overview

The AUD strengthened after the positive Consumer Inflation Expectation report. Later the pair suffered a short lived downward movement after negative labour market data.

Current situation

Technically, the instrument is in an ascending channel, close to its upper limit. In general, the pair was in a buy mode and remained at the week highs. The AUD was unable to break the level 0.7650 and traded in a narrow corridor between 0.7650 and 0.7600. The resistance is at 0.7700, the support comes in at 0.7600.

MACD is in the positive area. Its histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI is in the neutral territory and gives no signal.

The instrument is above the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs which are moving upwards in the 4 hours chart. The 1 hour chart shows the similar picture, the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are parallel to each other and are growing. The 200-EMA is a support for the AUD/USD.

Trading recommendations

We expect markets to stay fairly neutral with short-term bounces downwards to 0.7600 and 0.7550.



GOLD

General overview

The gold is under pressure due to:
1. The return to risk assets
2. The USA economy recovery
3. The expectations that the USA will hike the rate this year

Current situation

The pair remained in an ascending channel, near its lower limit. The gold futures moved lower following the decision of the BoE to keep the rates unchanged. The new local low is at 1320. The resistance is at 1360, the support comes in at 1330.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram grew which indicates the sellers’ weakness. Indicator RSI rebounded from the oversold area. Its signal line moved upwards which confirms the strength of buyers.

The price broke the 50-EMA, but was stopped at the 100-EMA which rejected it upwards. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are turning downwards.

Trading recommendations

We are looking for the support 1316 break and then continuation of a fall with a further target at 1300.



Brent

General overview

The Brent is under pressure due to concerns that the market is oversupplied with oil.

Current situation

The Brent was stronger on Thursday, trading near the local high against the dollar. The price recovered after a sharp decrease the other day, the Brent gained about 1.90% during the course of the trades. The resistance is at 47.50, the support comes in at 46.50.

MACD histogram is in the negative area which indicates the sellers’ strength. If MACD continues its decrease, bears’ positions will strengthen. RSI is close to the overbought area which confirms a downtrend.

The price rebounded from the 50-EMA downwards. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are turning downwards in 4 the hours chart.

Trading recommendations

The resistance level of 47.50 retest is more likely to lead to the strong price support level 46.50 return.



DAX

General overview

The German stock market grew due to the technology, the chemical industry and telecommunications sectors strengthening. Deutsche Bank was the leader of a growth (among the DAX 30 index), its shares rose by 3.62%.

Current situation

The index was strong, its bullish tone persisted yesterday. The DAX30 started a day with a gap upwards and set a fresh local high at 10100. The resistance is at 10175, the support is seen at 1000.

The MACD histogram is in the positive area. If MACD remains in the positive territory, buyers’ positions will strengthen. RSI came out from the overbought area and moved downwards that also supports sellers.

The 50-EMA touched the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA and 100-EMA direction is downwards which is a buy signal. The 200 EMA is neutral.

Trading recommendations

The downward bounce potential targets are 10000 and 9750.



S&P 500

General overview

The Bonds Market in the USA grew yesterday. Investors are evaluating the BoE's decision and the USA statistics. The Standard & Poor's 500 has been showing a profit the 5th session in a line, the index renewed its historical highs.

Current situation

The index went back and forth during the course of the session on Thursday. It grew during the Asian and the European sessions and moved away from all-time high at the American one. The market looks like it could pull back a little. The resistance comes in at 2165, the support lies at 2150.

MACD is in the positive area. Its histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The indicator still gives a buy signal. RSI is in the overbought territory which is a buy signal for now.

The 50-EMA crossed the 100 and 200 EMAs upwards which indicated the buyers’ strength.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the index S&P 500 will form the consolidation between the levels of 2165-2150.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman


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PostSubject: Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis    Mon Jul 18, 2016 7:27 am

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

18.07.2016

Euro

General overview


This week the ECB will hold the meeting regarding its monetary policy which may become a driver for the single currency if Draghi makes unexpected statements.

Current situation


The EUR/USD unexpectedly dropped and lost about 0.74% on Friday. The overall picture is bearish now. The resistance is seen at 1.1050, the support lies at 1.1000.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. RSI approached the oversold area.

The 4 hours chart shows that the price bounced off the 200-EMA. The pair left behind the 100-EMA and the 50-EMA which is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations


The pair may recover to 1.1080 to resume its downward trajectory towards 1.0900.



Pound

General overview

The BoJ left its rates unchanged, however, the regulator left the door open for changes for August. This news preserved some risk appetite in the markets.

Current situation

The tone is still negative in the market. The pound fell from a two-week high on Friday when the U.S. data boosted the dollar across the market. The pound lost about 1.20% during the course of the day. The current resistance is seen at 1.3300, the support exists at 1.3100.

MACD indicator declined. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. Indicator RSI rebounded from the overbought area that supports sellers.

The instrument is locked in-between the bearish 100-EMA and the 50-EMA. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) direction is downwards.

Trading recommendations

We remain bearish on the outlook for the currency. A move below the current support 1.3100 would suggest a resumption of the bearish trend.



Yen

General overview

The yen kept falling and reached the three-week highs during Friday. The Japanese currency is under pressure after the Bonds market growth. If the situation does not change the Japanese regulator may implement new softening measures.

Current situation

We see no change in USD/JPY outlook. The growth from 98.97 is still seen as a correction and it seems to be over. The pair sharply decreased on Friday and lost about 0.47%. Sellers seem to have returned to the market. The resistance is at 105.30, the support comes in at 104.50.

MACD remained in the positive territory, however, its histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI left the overbought area which is another sell signal.

The pair is coming back to the 200-EMA which acts as a support in the 4 hours chart. The 50-EMA and the 100-EMA are still moving upwards which is a buy signal.

Trading recommendations


The price is expected to fall towards 103.50. Alternatively, the pair will resume its growth.



NZD/USD

General overview

The NZD decreased when RBNZ decided to provide an update on the economy on July 21. The kiwi is too strong and the regulator might cut the rate to hold its growth.

Current situation

Technically, the instrument left the upward channel. The NZD decreased and left the level 0.7150 behind. The resistance is at 0.7150, the support comes in at 0.7050.

MACD is in the negative area. Its histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ positions strength. RSI is close to the oversold territory which is a sell signal.

The 4 hours chart shows that the instrument broke the 50 and 100 EMAs and approached the 200-EMA which is its last hope to resume a growth.

Trading recommendations

We expect markets to stay bearish. In the scenario where the sellers still have a ball the pair will decrease to 0.7050 - 0.7000.



GOLD

General overview

The gold resumed its decrease. The political uncertainty, the bank crisis in Italy and the low rates in the leading economies are the main drivers for this decrease.

Current situation

The pair remained close to the ascending channel lower limit. The gold futures spent the day at the level 1330. The resistance is seen at 1360, the support stands at 1330.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram grew which indicates the sellers’ weakness. Indicator RSI rebounded from the oversold area. Its signal line moved upwards which confirms the growing strength of buyers.

The price broke the 50-EMA, but was stopped at the 100-EMA which rejected it upwards. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are turning downwards.

Trading recommendations


We are looking for the support 1316 break and then continuation of a fall with a further stop at 1300.



Brent

General overview

The Brent is getting cheaper due to supply and demand aspects. At the same time economical uncertainty after the Brexit still supports a demand for the safe assets.

Current situation

The Brent was active on Friday, the oil futures gained about 1.30%. The price recovered and was able to return some of its early losses. However, the market still bearish and we do not believe in a strong growth in the near term. The resistance is at 48.50, the support comes in at 47.50.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI is close to the overbought area.

The price broke the 50-EMA, but was not able to move higher the 100-EMA. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards in 4 the hours chart.

Trading recommendations

The resistance level of 48.50 retest is more likely to lead to the strong price support level 46.50 return.



NASDAQ

General overview

The Bonds Market in the US remained optimistic due to the positive macroeconomic data in the US.

Current situation

The index was neutral on Friday. The Nasdaq remained in a narrow side channel. The resistance is at 4600, the support is seen at 4550.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The indicator still gives a buy signal. RSI left the overbought area and moved downwards that also supports sellers.

The price broke the 50-EMA and touched the 100-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs direction is upwards which is a buy signal.

Trading recommendations


We expect the price to remain at the current levels and will fluctuate between 4600 and 4550.



S&P 500

Current situation

The index left all-time high and moved below 2150. As we expected the market pulled back a little. The index lost about 0.53% on Friday. The resistance comes in at 2150, the support lies at 2140.

MACD is in the positive area. Its histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The indicator still gives a buy signal. RSI left the overbought territory.

The 50-EMA touched the 100-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The moving averages direction is upwards.

Trading recommendations

Technically, the main trend is upwards, however, sellers managed to lead the price from 2160 to 2140. We believe that is a correctional decrease which happened due to the profit-taking. The price may decrease to 2120 (where the 50-EMA lies) to bounce from it upwards.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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PostSubject: Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis    Mon Jul 18, 2016 11:03 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

19.07.2016

Euro

General overview

There is still a degree of mild optimism that the Fed will hike the rate this year, which supported the dollar. Investors evaluate the chance of the rate hike by 42%.

Current situation

A daily chart shows that the pair is in the range between the marks 1.1000 and 1.1170. The euro remained within the middle-term descending channel in the 4 hours chart. The instrument found a very solid support around 1.1000 (a strong psychological level). The resistance is seen at 1.1130, the support lies at 1.1050.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI bounced from the oversold area, its signal line grew that indicates buyers’ growing strength.

The price is close to the 50-EMA which acts as a resistance. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards which is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

Shall the pair break the support 1.1000 the instrument EUR/USD will decrease to 1.0900. A break above 1.1130 could lead to a growth towards 1.1200.



Pound

General overview

The pound grew to the session high after Martin Weale’s speech (BoE representative). According to him, there is no rush to cut the interest rate in August.

Current situation

In general, we do not see any change in GBP/USD's outlook, its downtrend is still in progress. The pair attempted to recover some of its previous week losses. However, the growing impulse faded at around 1.3300. The current resistance is seen at 1.3300, the support exists at 1.3100.

MACD remained neutral yesterday. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. Indicator RSI is in the neutral territory.

The instrument is sandwiched between the 100 and the 50 EMAs. The 200-EMA direction is downwards, the 50-EMA and the 100-EMA are horizontal.

Trading recommendations


We still remain bearish on the outlook for the currency. If price makes another attempt to break the level 1.3100 the pound may fall to 1.2700.



Yen

General overview

The yen weakened on Monday when Turkish government returned its control over the country after a failed coup. Investors initially ran to the yen as a safe asset on the news about a coup attempt.

Current situation

USD/JPY remained in a trading range around 106.00 level. Our technical outlook is still short-term bullish. The resistance is at 106.00, the support comes in at 105.30.

MACD remained in the positive territory, however, its histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI returned to the overbought area which is a buy signal.

The 50-EMA broke the 100-EMA upwards. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are still moving upwards which is a buy signal.

Trading recommendations


An uptrend will start as soon, as the pair rises above 106.00. Once we break above the 106.00 level, we think that the 107.00 level will be next. Conversely, the price may fall back to 103.50.



USD/CAD

General overview

There is a moderate sentiment in the market today. The oil quotes are the main guideline for the pair. The growth of Brent will support sellers in the USA/CAD.

Current situation

We believe the pair is back to a long-term downwards trend, however, it found quite a lot of support around 1.2900. Yesterday the pair grew and was able to gain about 0.15%. The resistance is at 1.3000, the support comes in at 1.2900.

MACD is in the negative area. Its histogram grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. Indicator RSI is in the neutral territory.

The 4 hours chart shows that the instrument broke the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs. The 200-EMA acts as a support for the pair. The EMAs direction is horizontal.

Trading recommendations


The approach to the level of 1.3000 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support level of 1.2900.



GOLD

General overview


The gold quotes remained under pressure close to the 2-week lows when the markets recovered after the failure of the military coup in Turkey.

Current situation

The current decrease is looking corrective with the more positive sentiment for the market. The instrument found a very solid support around 1330. The resistance is seen at 1330, the support stands at 1316.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. Indicator RSI is close to the oversold area.

The price is locked in-between the 50-EMA and the 100-EMA. The 50, 100 and 200 EMAs are turning downwards.

Trading recommendations


We suppose the pair will go to 1316 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1300.



Brent

General overview

The Brent went back and forth on Monday fluctuating in a narrow range amid drilling activity growth in the USA. Moreover, investors are digesting the news regarding a failed coup in Turkey.

Current situation

The overall outlook remains bearish. The Brent is in a descending channel, hovering at the support 46.50. The Brent showed negative dynamic yesterday when the instrument dropped back below 47.50. The resistance is at 47.50, the support comes in at 46.50.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI is in the neutral territory.

The price broke the 50-EMA downwards. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards in the 4 hours chart.

Trading recommendations

If the instrument grows its next stop could well be at 47.50 region. If the price breaks above this region, then this could lead to renewed buying momentum. Alternatively, a break below the current support 46.50 risks a decline towards 45.30.



DAX

General overview


European shares opened higher on Monday on the news that SoftBank will acquire ARM Holdings (a smartphone chip designer).

Current situation


The index was neutral on Monday. The DAX remained in a narrow side channel which is limited by the marks 10000 and 10090. The index seems to have found a solid support at the current level 10000. The resistance is at 10175, the support is seen at 10000.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The indicator still gives a buy signal. RSI is close to the overbought area which is a buy signal.

The price is at the 50-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving upwards.

Trading recommendations


We may expect the trades between the levels of 10175 and 10000.



S&P 500

The Bonds Market strengthened in the USA on Monday. S&P500 traded near intraday highs as the financial reports of the leading USA companies kept showing positive data.

Current situation

The S&P500 remained in a narrow side channel which is limited by the marks 2160 and 2150. The resistance is at 2165, the support is seen at 2150.

MACD is in the positive area. Its histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. The indicator still gives a buy signal. RSI is close to the overbought territory.

The price broke the 50-EMA, but failed to break the 100-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The moving averages direction is upwards.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the price will remain in the side channel 2165-2150.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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PostSubject: Re: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis    Thu Jul 21, 2016 11:22 pm

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

22.07.2016

Euro

General overview

The ECB left its interest rates unchanged. According to Mario Draghi he expects the Eurozone economy recover in a moderate pace. Mario Draghi stressed that Brexit had a little effect to the inflation outlook in the Eurozone. The USA published the positive Initial Jobless Claims report.

Current situation

The EUR/USD remained under pressure yesterday. The ECB’s news triggered a sharp short-term rally that boosted the euro to 1.1060. However, the rally faded and sellers returned to the market. The EUR/USD closed the day bearish. The resistance is seen at 1.1050, the support lies at 1.1000.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram decreased which indicates the sellers’ strength. RSI returned to the oversold area, its signal line decreased that also indicates sellers’ strength.

The price is below the bearish 50-EMA which still acts as a resistance in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards which is a sell signal.

Trading recommendations

The pair is threatening to break below the psychological support at 1.1000 now. A cut through here will aim it at the 1.0950 level.



Pound

General overview

The recent rally in the pair GBP/USD was supported by the positive unemployment data. However, yesterday’s retail sales report undermined the overall positive outlook. Today we expect a number of PMI releases.

Current situation

The disappointing UK retail sales data weighed the pound which fell from the local highs. The pair settled above the 1.3100 level by the end of the trades. The current resistance is seen at 1.3300, the support exists at 1.3100.

MACD indicator is at the centerline. If the histogram enters the negative territory, that will indicate sellers’ growing strength. If MACD returns into the positive area the buyers will take control over the market. RSI is in the neutral territory.

The instrument remains in-between the 50-EMA and the 100-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) direction is downwards.

Trading recommendations

The pair may resume its downtrend if it breaks the mark 1.3100. Alternatively, the pair GBP/USD will rally towards 1.3350.



Yen

General overview

The yen fell on the news that the Shinzō Abe may increase the quantity of the fiscal stimulus measures.

Current situation

The pair dipped into a negative territory. The USD/JPY left behind the levels 107.00 and 106.00 and approached 105.30. The pair lost about 0.98% during the course of the day. The resistance is at 106.00, the support comes in at 105.30.

MACD remained in the positive territory. MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI bounced from the overbought area which is a sell signal.

The instrument broke the 50-EMA and 100-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are turning downwards.

Trading recommendations

The pair now seems to be heading towards its immediate support near 105.30. A break below the level would open the way to 104.50.



AUD/USD

General overview

Reserve Bank of Australia left its rate unchanged this week. The RBA left the door open for the rate change for August.

Current situation

The instrument went back and forth during the course of the session on Thursday. The AUD has found a descent resistance around 0.7500. All its attempts to grow were rejected by the level. The resistance is at 0.7500, the support comes in at 0.7400.

MACD is in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. Indicator RSI is close to the oversold area which is a sell signal.

The 4 hours chart shows that the instrument is just below the 100-EMA. The 50-EMA and the 100-EMA are turning down which is a sell signal. The 200-EMA is neutral.

Trading recommendations

If the pair manages to make a breakout of 0.7500 upwards the AUD/USD may hit 0.7550 -0.7600 area. To trigger additional downward momentum the AUD needs to break 0.7465 (the 200-EMA).



GOLD

General overview

The gold became cheaper on the back of the dollar strengthening. The real estate market supported the dollar.

Current situation

The instrument finished the day bullish. The pair was able to recover and gained about 0.82% by the end of the trades. The gold stopped at the current resistance which is seen at 1330, the support stands at 1316.

MACD is in the negative area. The histogram grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. Indicator RSI bounced from the oversold area.

The price broke upwards the 50 and 100 EMAs in the 4 hours chart. Now the price is above the 50-EMA which is heading to penetrate the 100-EMA downwards.

Trading recommendations

The XAU/USD rebounded from the level 1308 (the 200 EMA) and grew to the current resistance at 1330. A cut through here will turn our attention to the 1360 level.



Brent

General overview

The oil inventory decreased in the USA which actually was welcome news for the price. Today we expect Oil Rig Count report which can boost the price.

Current situation

Technically, a bearish tone persists. The crude oil remained in the descending channel, the price returned to its lower limit. The Brent futures dipped from 47.50 to 46.50. The instrument lost about 1.50% during the course of the trades. The resistance is at 47.50, the support comes in at 46.50.

MACD indicator is in the negative area. MACD grew which indicates the sellers’ positions weakening. RSI is in the neutral territory.

The price broke the 50-EMA upwards in the 4 hours chart. However, the price did not hold there and drop below of it. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving downwards in the 4 hours chart.

Trading recommendations

The tone is still negative in the market. The level 46.50 limits all sellers attempts to go further. A break below this mark risks a decline towards the support at 45.30



NASDAQ


Current situation

The instrument was in a sell mode yesterday. The index decreased from the all-time highs to the mark 4637. The resistance is at 4650, the support is seen at 4600.

MACD decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI left the overbought area which is a sell signal.

The price snapped the 50-EMA in the 1 hour chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) are moving upwards.

Trading recommendations


The NASDAQ is overbought. The most likely scenario involves a move towards 4600.



S&P 500

Current situation

Technically, a bullish tone persists in the market, however, the index had a negative day on Thursdays. The S&P500 left its daily high at 2169 and fell by 0.42%. The resistance is at 2165, the support is seen at 2150.

MACD is in the positive territory. Its histogram decreased which indicates the buyers’ positions weakening. RSI left the overbought area which is a sell signal.

The price is approaching the bullish 50-EMA in the 4 hours chart. The moving averages (50, 100 and 200) direction is upwards. The SP500 broke the 50 and 100 EMAs in the 1 hour chart and is approaching the 200-EMA.


Trading recommendations

We still believe in a growth. The price is overbought and we expect a short-term pull back. Now we are waiting for a bullish signal to buy the S&P500.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

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