"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

25.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar stopped its growth. Earlier two factors supported the dollar: returned risk appetite and the new "hawkish" statements of Fed speakers. Traders started to buy the dollar after the Bullard’s performance (Fed representative). Bullard joined the recent comments of his colleagues, having revived traders’ hopes for an early rate hike, which, according to several speakers might occur in April or June. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became less than it was expected: 265 thousand against the forecasted 268 thousand. Western World will celebrate Good Friday today.

The yield differential of US and German government bonds reduced. That fact reduced the attractiveness of US assets and would put pressure on the dollar. Another important positive factor was the closing of risk assets. By the end of the day the pair euro/dollar showed a growth after a decrease.

The UK retail sales report for February was the main event in the UK yesterday. The index pleased us and showed -0.4% when the forecast was -0.7%. The pair pound/dollar strengthened by the end of the trades.

Japan showed a mixed fundamental background yesterday. On the one hand, the Japanese government downgraded its forecasts for economic growth in 2016. The government expects the decline in personal consumption and corporate profits decrease. In this regard, bears are well aware that count on the strengthening of the yen is extremely dangerous. On the other hand, the financial markets showed decline of "risk appetite", which might positively impact the yen as a funding currency. The pair dollar/yen increased after the downward movement.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The pair focused its attention on the stock assets dynamics in the absence of economic data. Risk interest played against the single currency, which was also affected by the strengthening of the dollar after the Fed representatives’ "hawkish" statements. The EUR/USD could not strengthen even after a slight
deterioration of sentiment on the USA stock market that was caused by oil quotations falling. The dollar kept its stable positions. Only by the end of the trades the piar increased amid the slight dollar’s weakness.

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1050 and 1.1150. The potential growth target is the resistance levels of 1.1260.



Pound

General overview

The UK government bonds yields grew in relation to their counterparts (the United States and Germany), which increased the attractiveness of British assets. The increased "risk appetite" could not be ignored as well, putting pressure on the cross-rate EUR/GBP. The risk appetite had a positive impact on the British currency.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.4240 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.4320.



Yen

General overview

Japanese exporters repeatedly stated the need of measures aimed at weakening of the national currency. The US and Japanese government bond yield differential widened to its highest level since 30 th December, 2015, which also played into the hands of the US currency buyers.

The price is finding the first support at 112.20, the next one is at 111.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The upward movement potential target is 113.00. If the price falls it will get to 112.20.



Franc

General overview

The dollar strengthened its positions after a positive US housing market data. The promising Federal Reserve representatives’ comments supported the USA currency as well along side with the increased demand for safe assets after the terrorist attacks in Brussels. However, then the dollar’s growth stopped.

The first support resides at 0.9750, the next is at 0.9660. The first resistance stands at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9960.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 0.9850 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 0.9960 will be opened after this breakthrough. If the price fixates below the support 0.9660, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 0.9580



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

28.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

Traders continued buying the dollar, still the dollar strengthening was weak and soon after the dollar retreated. In general, traders activity was gradually reduced amid the long Easter weekend (European and the US markets are closed). The dollar positions were undermined by the ambiguous statistics from the United States, although all published reports were quite positive. The United States published the final GDP for the fourth quarter. The data came in at the level 1,4% against the forecasted 1,0%.

German government bonds yields decreased in relation to their counterparts (the US and the UK) which pressured the euro. The pair euro/dollar was trading in a flat.

The 10-year government bonds yield in the UK increased in relation to their counterparts (the United States and Germany), which increased the attractiveness of British assets. Moreover the oil market dynamics was hard to ignore. After a correction caused by weak oil stocks in the US, investors once again began to build up long positions that had a positive impact on the British currency. Only by the end of the trades the pair pound/dollar slightly decreased.

The published inflation data in Japan showed that the consumer price index over the year in February was not changed. Low energy prices and weak demand limited the growth of the price. These facts kept pressuring the Bank of Japan to increase the size of the stimulus, although the regulator had softened its monetary policy in January. The pair dollar/yen slightly increased.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

According to Klaas Knot (the president of the Netherlands Bank) the effectiveness of stimulus measures taken by the European Central Bank is approaching its limit. He believes that the ECB monetary policy instruments have been exhausted.

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.1260 for a steady growth. If the price falls it will get to 1.1150 and 1.1050.



Pound

General overview

Retail Sales ex-Fuel report supported the pound. The index rose by 4.1% y/y vs. the forecast of + 3.4% and the January values at + 5.1%. Retail sales also came in better than expected, reaching 0.4% against analysts' forecast of -0.7%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.4160 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.4160.



Yen

General overview

Yen failed to take an advantage from a flight from risk. The meeting of the BoJ became another negative factor for the yen. The head of the Central Bank Haruhiko Kuroda said that the monetary policy easing would be continued as long as the inflation stabilized at around 2%.

The price is finding the first support at 113.00, the next one is at 112.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 113.80, the next one is at 114.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 113.80. The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 113.00 and 112.20.



Franc

General overview

In addition to the US statistics Bullard's performance (the representative of the Fed) was in the spotlight. According to Bullard the next rate hike may happen soon enough as the March forecasts decline was relatively small. Kaplan (another Fed representative) said that the Fed was aimed to normalize the interest rates "as quickly as possible."

The first support resides at 0.9750, the next is at 0.9660. The first resistance stands at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9960.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 0.9850 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 0.9960 will be opened after this breakthrough. If the price fixates below the support 0.9750, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 0.9660



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

30.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

Janet Yellen's speech was the key event yesterday. According to Yellen she is concerned about the low inflation figures. Meanwhile, the Fed has a number of tools for the economy stimulus, if needed, even if the rate returns back to zero. In addition, she noted that the world changes and risks lead to a slower pace of interest rate increase.

The dollar failed to grow against most of its rivals at the beginning of the new trading week. The US currency became a victim of the weak statistics from the US. The market response to the news was extremely intense in a low liquidity due to the ongoing Easter holiday. There was a mixed background concerning the single European currency. On the one hand, the "risk appetite" was preserved, which should put pressure on the euro as a funding currency. On the other hand, after Personal Consumption Expenditures publication the US dollar fell against its major competitors. The US published Consumer Confidence report for March at the level of 96.2 (the previous value was 92.2, the forecast was 93.9). By the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar showed a strong growth.

The growing oil price pushed the pound upwards. The pair pound/dollar increased by the end of the trades.

The yen finished the rally and weakened after the conflicting economic release from Japan. The interest in selling could be associated with the reports about the monetary stimulus measures discussion. The volume of consumer spending in Japan increased by 1.2% in February compared to the last year (it was the first time in six months), which was significantly better than the expected decline of 1.8%. The volume of retail sales grew by only 0.5% with the expected growth of 1.6%. The unemployment rate rose from 3.2% to 3.3%. The pair dollar/yen sharply fell.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The pair euro/dollar increased on Tuesday. Earlier the dollar rose against the European currency as investors were preparing for Yellen’s speech. Everybody was guessing whether the Chairmen would give a hint regarding the next rate hike in the United States or not. The Eurozone and the United States monetary polices will continue to diverge as long as investors are confident in the Fed’s future rate increase. Meanwhile the euro will be supported by Mario Draghi’s statements that the rates are at the lowest limit.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.3670, the next one is 1.1450.



Pound

General overview

The widespread dollar selling supported the pair GBP/USD. We recommend to pay attention to Manufacturing PMI which will be published on Friday. We also wait for Mark Carney’s performance (Bank of England Chairman) on Thursday.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.4400 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.4480.



Yen

General overview

The yen remained under pressure when Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said that he intended to implement the planned rise of sales tax in April, if the economy did not suffer from sudden shocks. Many analysts expected that Abe to postpone the planned increase, that is a threat to the fragile recovery of the Japanese economy. Only by the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen fell amid the dollar’s weakness.

The price is finding the first support at 112.20, the next one is at 111.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 112.20 and 111.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

31.03.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar suffered significant losses. The US currency fell victim to the extremely soft Fed rhetoric. The regulator emphasized the risks: external and internal, and also mentioned the possibility of policy easing if necessary. The regulator’s comments suggest a significant weakening of the dollar, especially in light of the mentioned possible return to the economy stimulation. The ADP for March was published on Wednesday (the previous value was 214K; the forecast was 194K). The data came in at the level of 200K.

It is impossible to ignore the growing "appetite for risk": traders are increasing their long positions and high-yield cross-rates that pressured the euro as a funding currency. However the pair euro/dollar strengthened by the end of the trades.

The debt market dynamics pointed to the British currency correction. The 10 years UK government bonds yields reduced in relation to their counterparts (the United States and Germany) which reduced the attractiveness of the British assets. The Bank of England performance will be the focus of our attention on Thursday. By the end of the trades the pair pound/dollar decreased.

The yields differential on government bonds of the United States and Japan decreased from November to February inclusively. Retail Trade turnover decreased by 5.4% in Japan. Despite the Japanese and the US retail sales differential indicators at 0% at the end of January, this figure reached the level of 2.2% in favor of the latter in February. The pair dollar/yen closed the trades with a slight growth.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Janet Yellen’s speech made a huge change in the quotations dynamics – the price flew to the weekly highs in minutes. The positive consumer confidence data in the United States could not support the dollar. Meanwhile, the March index jumped to 96.2 from 92.2 against the forecast of 94.0. Germany published the preliminary March data on the inflation at the level of 0,8% against the forecasted 0,6%.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1350. After breaking 1.1350 the buyers may go to 1.1450.



Pound

General overview

Janet Yellen’s soft tone (Federal Reserve Chairman) was fairly predictable, the US dollar sharply retreated against the pound. The pair flew upwards to the weekly highs. Even though the BoE considers the Brexit one of the main threats for the country's financial stability this time it did not prevent the pound from growing.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.4400 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.4480.



Yen

General overview

The yen weakened amid the weak retail sales data in Japan. The index fell by 2.3% m/m after a reduction by 0.4% in January. The unemployment rate rose to 3.3% from 3.2%. Akie Abe’s statements, the Prime Minister, were another factor that played against the yen. According to the Prime Minister he does not intend to put off the sales tax increase from 8% to 10%, which is scheduled for next year. However, after Janet Yellen’s speech the quotes dramatically changed their vector and rushed south. Only by the end of the trades the pair slightly increased.

The price is finding the first support at 112.20, the next one is at 111.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the level 113.00. We do not exclude the falls to 112.20.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

01.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar continued to lose ground, being under heavy pressure after the recent extremely soft Janet Yellen's comments. The dollar was so shocked by the regulator's rhetoric that was not able to show a positive reaction even after a positive labor market report.

According to the ADP, the level of employment increased by 200 000 compared to the forecasted 194 000. If not the recent Yellen's comments the market could see a decent dollar growth in response to the positive ADP release, which attracted considerable attention in anticipation of the NFP. The USA published Initial Jobless Claims for March at the level of 276K (the previous value was 265K; the forecast was 269K).

After a positive German’s CPI release we expect the Euro area inflation data better than a consensus forecast. The ECB soft monetary policy and the oil price growth pressured the inflation in Europe. The preliminary CPI for March came in at -0.1% m/m, in line with the forecast. The pair EUR/USD strengthened.

The United Kingdom published the final GDP for Q4. The report showed 2.1% vs. the forecast of 1.9%. According to Carney, the Bank of England governor, the low growth and low interest rates create problems for banks and corporations. The instrument pound/dollar is consolidating.

The published Japanese macroeconomic statistics continued to disappoint the market. The main factors that pressured the yen were: weak employment and retail sales report and the negative industrial production. The industrial production has been decreasing the last three months. The pair dollar/yen is consolidating.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Retail sales in Germany declined in February. The index fell by 0.4% m/m, after a falling by 0.1% in January. Economists forecasted a growth of sales by 0.3% compared with January’s release. The number of unemployed in Germany remained unchanged in March, the unemployment rate remained at 6.2%.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.1450 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1550 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound

General overview

The fact that the UK economy grew in the last three months of 2015 more than it was anticipated helped the pound to strengthen against the dollar. Still the country's current account deficit rose to a record high. The current balance of payments for Q4 was 32.7 billion. pounds. However by the end of the trades the pound showed a consolidation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.4400 and 1.4480.



Yen

General overview

According to Kuroda the market interest rates significantly decreased; the government did not declare victory over a deflation as it cannot be sure that the low prices will not return.

The price is finding the first support at 112.20, the next one is at 111.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 113.00, the next one is at 113.80.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target is 113.00. If the price falls it will get to 112.20.



Franc

General overview

The US dollar fell against almost all currencies when Janet Yellen supported a cautious approach to the interest rates raising. Investors considered her remarks as a soft tone, which led to the stock market growth.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9580, the next one is at 0.9500. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9660, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9500. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9420.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

04.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar is still under pressure. In general, traders continued to get rid of the American currency after the recent soft comments by Janet Yellen who did not exclude a return to the economy stimulus. The NFP became one of the main events last week. The indicator showed 215,000, the forecast was 205,000, after a growth by 242,000 in February. The USA also published Unemployment Rate for March that came in at the level of 5.0%. The previous value was 4.9%, m / m, the forecast was 4.9%.

German Retail Sales report was a contradictory one. Even though it showed a drop of 0.4% on a monthly basis, it grew on annual basis by 5.4%. Unemployment Rate in Germany in March remained unchanged- 6.2%. Unemployment Change came in at 0. Manufacturing PMI in Germany for March showed 50.7 with a forecast of 50.4. Consumer Price Index in the European Union lost 0.1% in annual terms, which point out the presence of deflation in the European Region. Despite a mixed macroeconomic statistics from the EU, investors interpreted it as a positive sign. The pair euro/dollar closed the trades with a slight growth.

The United Kingdom published the Manufacturing PMI for March that came in at the level of 51.0 (the previous value was 50.8, the forecast was 51.3). The pair pound/dollar decreased.

Japan published the Tankan Non - Manufacturing index for the 1st quarter: the index fell to 22 from 25. Tankan Large Manufacturing Index for the 1st quarter showed a decrease from 12 to 6. The pair dollar/yen fell by the end of the trades.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The Eurozone published Manufacturing Sector PMI for March at the level of 51.6. The forecast was 51.4. The unemployment rate remained at the level of 10.3%.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1450, the next one is 1.1550.



Pound

General overview

The cross-rate EUR/GBP rose by 7.4% since the beginning of 2016 which increased the competitiveness of British goods in the Europe. The government bonds yields grew in relation to their counterparts (the US and Germany) which also played into the hands of bulls. However by the end of the week the sterling sharply fell against the US dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential targets are 1.4240 and 1.4320. If the price falls it will get to 1.4160.



Yen

General overview

Japan published several business activity indexes and none of them came in positive and reached the predicted values. However, the investors were not confused and started a wave of the Japanese yen buying. The dollar fell against the yen when the China's manufacturing data increased the market sentiment, while investors awaited the Non-Farm release in the US.

The price is finding the first support at 111.40, the next one is at 110.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 112.20, the next one is at 113.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 111.40 breakthrough down the way to the support 110.60 will be opened.



Franc

General overview

Switzerland published business PMI for March. The report showed a growth from 51.6 to 53.2. The retail sales for February showed -0.4%.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9420. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9580, the next one is at 0.9660.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9500. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9420.


*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

05.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

According to the US labor market report published last week, the Non-Farm increased by 215 000 in March (the forecast was 205 000). The Average Hourly Earnings grew to 0.3% after falling by 0.1% a month earlier. The overall picture was somewhat blurred by the fact that the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose from 4.9% to 5.0%. The dollar generally remained under pressure after Yellen’s recent soft comments.

Unemployment Rate in the Euro area fell to a new multi-year low in February, but remained high considering the current economic problems in the region. Eurozone unemployment rate was 10.3% – the lowest since August 2011. The pair euro/dollar is trading in a flat.

The UK published PMI Construction report which remained at the previous level of 54.2, while the forecast was 54.0. The pair pound/dollar slightly increased.

The Japanese Yen moved upwards on Monday. Investors sluggishly reacted to the US labor market reports and Manufacturing PMI. On the other hand the risk appetite increase was a negative factor for the yen as a funding currency. However by the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen decreased.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The escape from the risky assets, as well as favorable statistics from the Eurozone supported the euro. The manufacturing PMI in Germany for March exceeded traders’ expectations. The index reached 50.7 and 51.6 against the forecasts of 50.4 and 51.4. On the other hand the 10-year German government bonds yield decreased in relation to their counterparts (the US and the UK) which reduced the attractiveness of the European assets.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.1450 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1550 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound

General overview

The UK GDP in Q4 was revised upward amid the Construction Sector growth. The business activity index came out more than expected – 54.2 against the forecast of 54.0. The growth of the pair was limited by fears regarding Brexit. The market could not ignore the potential demand on the oil market. The oil price has an influence on the pair GBP/USD movement.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.4240 and 1.4160. The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.4320, 1.4400.



Yen

General overview

The US economy created 632 000 new jobs in the first quarter that is by 10.8% more than the year before. The quarterly growth has been the highest since 2013. On the other hand, the average wage increased by 0.28% m/m which would help the consumer spending to grow and would increase the inflationary pressures.

The price is finding the first support at 110.60, the next one is at 109.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 111.40, the next one is at 112.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 110.60 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 109.80.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

06.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar remained under pressure. Yesterday's trading was ambiguous amid a contradictory of stock indexes and oil prices dynamics. USA weak data did not help the dollar as well. New York ISM index fell from the level of 53.6 to 50.4 vs. the forecast of 54.1.

Rosengren's speech (the Fed representative) slightly supported the dollar. According to Rosengren the regulator may need more than one rate hike. The United States published Non-Manufacturing PMI for March at the level of 54.5 (the previous value was 53.4, the forecast was 54.0).

The German government bonds decreased which reduced the attractiveness of the European assets. The pair euro/dollar was trading in a flat.

The United Kingdom published Service PMI for March. The index grew to 53.7 from the previous 52.7, in line with expectations. The UK 10-year government bonds yield grew which supported the British currency. However the pair pound/dollar decreased by the end of the trades.

Kuroda (the head of the Bank of Japan) said on Tuesday that the monetary policy alone could not solve all the problems. The dollar/yen continued to decrease.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The euro was sold off amid the weak data from the euro zone and the dovish comments by the ECB speaker. Praet (the ECB representative) pointed to the risks of keeping a low inflation for a long time. Praet’s performance also put pressure on the single currency. However the pair was trading in a flat. Non-Manufacturing PMI showed 53.1 vs. the forecast of 54.0.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1450. After breaking 1.1450 the buyers may go to 1.1550.



Pound

General overview

The pair pound/dollar sharply fell. Earlier the pound strengthened amid a strong construction PMI report. The indicator remained at 54.2 vs. the forecast of 54.0. The EURGBP additionally supported the pound. The recent macroeconomic data helped the pound to ignore a possible threat of losing the current rate after the Brexit.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4240.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.4080 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4000 will be opened.



Yen

General overview

The dollar/yen kept falling. Oil prices falling became a catalyst for the decrease. The oil further decrease is high, because the lack of possibility of any production freeze the near future. The investment outflow from Japan may weaken the yen further, still it is not very large as the financial year barely began in the country.

The price is finding the first support at 109.80, the next one is at 109.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 110.60, the next one is at 111.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 109.80, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 109.00.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

07.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

There was a pessimistic statement by Lagarde (the head of IMF) regarding the growing risks for the global economy. The Federal Reserve latest comments talked about low expectations regarding the interest rate. Finally the oil price decreased. All of these factors together were the main drivers for the risk escape, and against this background the dollar tried to recover. The Fed minutes publication became the main event of Wednesday. Some traders are afraid that the rate hike in April will show undue urgency. Also there were different opinions about the possibility of interest rates hike in April.

The market reaction to the positive USA reports was weak. We noticed the growing optimism in the bonds market. German 10-year government bonds yield kept growing, which made European assets more attractive for investments. Germany revealed Industrial Production for February. The index came in at -0.5% versus the previous data of 2.3% and the forecast of -1.8%. The pair euro/dollar showed a growth.

Service PMI grew both in the USA and the UK. Both indexes grew in comparison to February still the USA PMI growth rate was higher. The pair pond/dollar increased.

The USD/JPY completely ignored the positive macroeconomic statistics from the US and negative reports from Japan. The pair kept on following the dynamics of the stock markets, especially the Japanese one. The pair decreased.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The weak Service PMI in the Eurozone pressured the euro. The index fell to 53,1 from the previous value of 54,0, analytics expected the index to remain unchanged. The news that OECD lowered its forecasts regarding the German GBP growth in 2016 and 2017 pressured the euro as well. Even though the euro fell amid the mixed economic data it managed to recover some of it losses by the end of the day.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1450, the next one is 1.1550.



Pound

General overview

The Sterling strengthened by the end of the trades. Earlier the main drivers for the pair sales were: an escape from risks, oil prices decrease and weak Service PMI in the country. The index grew from 52.7 to 53.7 in March when the market expected the growth to 54,0. The bearish movement was obvious in the Bonds Market as well, which caused the UK 10-year government bonds yield to decrease.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4240.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.4080, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4000.



Yen

General overview

The decrease of risk appetite is a positive factor for the yen as a funding currency. The Bonds Market supported bears as well. The USA and Japanese government bonds yield differential decreased, which contributed to the inflow of capital into the Japanese assets.

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 109.00 and 108.50.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

08.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The market fell in the middle of the week amid Industrial Production weak report. The index lost 0.5%, the forecast was 1.8%. The published Fed minutes confirmed Yellen’s words regarding the external risks and slowing down with the rate hike. The market lowered its expectations to 46.5% that the Fed would hike the rate in September. At the same time the market gives 50% that the rate hike will happen in November and 52.5% that in December.

The ECB minutes publication and Mario Draghi’s performance became the main events of Thursday. Initial Jobless Claims showed 267K with the forecast of 270K. Consumer Credit Change showed $17,22B with the forecast of 14.74B

The UK published House Prices report for March. The housing prices rose by 10.1%. Economists expected that the growth rate slightly would weaken to 9.5%. The housing prices rose by 2.6% in monthly terms. Analysts expected the prices to grow only by 0.7%.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Mario Draghi’s performance became the main event of Thursday. The euro strengthened against the dollar by 4.6% in the first quarter. That was a negative factor for exports and inflation. The USA published Initial Jobless Claims for April. The Index showed 267K (the previous value was 276K; the forecast was 271K).

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1500.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1450, the next one is 1.1500.



Pound

General overview

The bonds market was against the British assets yesterday. The UK government bonds yields decreased. House Prices Index in the UK rose more than expected, reaching 2.6% compared with -1.5% in the previous month. Experts expected a growth rate for the last month by 0.7%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4240.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.4080, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4000.



Yen

General overview

The yen freshed 18-month highs when Tokyo shares fell and at the same time the oil prices grew. The demand for safe-haven assets helped to strengthen the yen as well. According to Haruhito Kuroda, the Bank of Japan Governor, the Central Bank will take further action to soften the monetary policy if necessary.

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 108.00 and 107.00.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

11.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

Based on the Fed minutes, the Central Bank is unlikely to hike the interest rates until June amid the concerns about the global economic growth. The Fed minutes pressured the dollar, still it could show a short-term growth after Janet Yellen’s speech. According to Janet Yellen the rate hike is still part of the regulator’s plans for this year.

The fact that the European Central Bank confirmed its readiness to stimulate the economy if necessary weakened the euro. However by the end of the trades the pair euro/dollar slightly increased.

In economic news, the weak economic reports in the UK did not support the pound which stopped growing against the US dollar. At the same time the dollar remained fragile due to the Fed cautious position regarding the rates hike. By the end of the week the pair pound/dollar showed a growth.

The yen growth was stopped by The Bonds Market growth as well as the possible intervention by the Japanese Central Bank. In addition, the Current Account for February increased to 2,434.9B compared with 520.8B in the previous month. Nevertheless the pair dollar/yen closed the trades with a decrease



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The 10-year government bonds yield in Germany grew which increased the attractiveness of the European assets. German exports increased by 1.3% after falling by 0.6 percent in January. At the same time, import growth slowed in Germany to 0.4% from 1.3% a month earlier.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen showы a downward movement and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.1450 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.1550.



Pound

General overview

The weak macroeconomic statistics upset the UK investors. Manufacturing Production for February fell due to the seasonal correction reaching 1.1%, and that was much higher than the forecast 0.2%. In addition the Britain Trade Balance Deficit decreased to 11.96 billion pounds in February from 12.16 billion pounds in January.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4240.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.4080 and 1.4000.



Yen

General overview

Taro Aso’s speech (the Minister of Finance of Japan) was the key event in Japan. The Minister was concerned about the recent Japanese yen strengthening. The high Trade Balance and the profits from touristic business helped Japanese Current Account to grow. The Current Account for February increased to 2,434.9B from the previous value of 520.8B.

The price is finding the first support at 107.40, the next one is at 106.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 108.20, the next one is at 109.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 107.40 breakthrough down the way to the support 106.60 will be opened.



Franc

General overview

The Swiss Consumer Prices on annual basis continued to decline in March. The index fell by 0.9% compared with a year earlier. The Consumer Prices on monthly basis has been growing for the second month in a row. The prices rose by 0.3% as expected in March, compared with the growth of 0.2% in February.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9420. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9580, the next one is at 0.9660.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9500. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9420.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

12.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

Cautious statements by William Dudley (the Fed representative) pressured the US currency. Dudley called for a cautious and gradual approach towards the interest rate hike.

No important news were published on Monday. Traders focused their attention on the Bonds Market dynamics which sent strong "bearish" signals: the 10-year German government bonds yield fell. The pair EUR/USD is trading in a flat.

The UK published some macroeconomic data, the weak data did not allow the bulls to return to the market. The industrial production volume for February decreased by 0.3%, in addition the index recorded a decrease of 0.1% for the first two months of the year. The same index in the USA for the same period showed an increase by 0.1%. Although the difference was small, still it was not in favor of the British currency. However by the end of the trades the pair GBP/USD strengthened.

Bearish sentiment within the USDJPY is very strong. The trading is defined by "risk appetite". The pair closed the trades with a decrease.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

No important news were published on Monday. Earlier the published Trade Balance in Germany for February supported the euro. The index grew to 19.8B Euros from 18.7B. Imports and exports increased by 0.4% and 1.3% vs. the forecast of -0, 3% and + 0.5% respectively.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.1450 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.1550.



Pound

General overview

Investors planned to update the March maximum of oil prices that will have a positive impact on the pound. Bonds market showed a growing optimism: the UK government bond yields grew.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.4160 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.4080 will be opened.



Yen

General overview

The dollar got under pressure after Fed of in Atlanta and J.P Morgan Bank forecasts publication. The first one downgraded the forecast for the US economic growth to + 0.1%. Meanwhile, Morgan Bank revised its forecast to + 0.2% from + 0.7%. These forecasts pressured the dollar. Risky assets sales once again supported the yen as a funding currency.

The price is finding the first support at 107.40, the next one is at 106.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 108.20, the next one is at 109.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 107.40 and 106.60.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

13.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The bullish sentiment in the commodity market had a negative impact on the dollar, due to the cost decrease of raw materials which is in the US currency. The oil and base metals confidently finished the first part of the week in the "green zone". Only by the end of the trades the dollar slightly strengthened.

The US and German government bonds yields differential decreased which increased the attractiveness of the European assets. On the other hand, the growth of pessimism in the world leading stock markets also played into the hands of the bulls (because the euro is one of the funding currencies). However the pair EUR/USD closed the trades with a decrease.

The UK inflation report became the main event of Tuesday. The gasoline prices growth and the average weekly earnings increase had its positive impact on the British bonds market. The 10-year government bonds yield increased by 8 bp. The UK consumer price index for March rose by 0.5% y/y that was the maximum value since December, 2014. The trades on the pair GBP/USD closed with a slight growth.

Japan and the United States did not publish any important macroeconomic statistics. The pair USD/JPY showed an upward correction.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Even though the inflation in Germany for March accelerated its growth, the Producer Price index was below the ECB target level. The consumer prices in Germany rose by 0.8%, the index rose by 0.1% over the year. Low rates of inflation in the Euro area forced the ECB to take additional measures to bring the inflation rate up to 2%.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

The price is on the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.1450 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1550 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Pound

General overview

The consumer price index in Britain rose by 0.5% y/y. According to Mark Carney (the Bank of England Governor) they need to accelerate the pace of wage growth and take the inflation to the target level of 2% before any rate increase. We believe that the Bank of England will keep the rates unchanged until the referendum in June. Uncertainty about the referendum results will slow down the economic growth for the next few months.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400.

The price is on the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.4240, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.4160.



Yen

General overview

The pair tried to strengthen its positions. Haruhiko Kuroda (the Bank of Japan Governor) announced his intention to launch additional measures. However, the yen continues to ignore any authorities attempts to pressure the currency. In the US, declared on import and export price indices (0,2% m/m and 0,0% m/m against the forecasted 1,0% m/m и -0,2% m/m correspondingly).

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 108.20 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 107.40.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

14.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar continued its attempts to recover. The latest Fed hawkish statements supported the dollar. In particular, Jeffrey Lacker (the Fed representative) said that the Fed is still planning four rates hike in 2016. The US currency got an additional support when the Fitch agency confirmed the US rating at AAA.

Retail Sales (in fact -0,3%m/m against the forecasted 0,1%m/m and previous -0,1% m/m) and the Producer Price index (in fact -0,1%m/m against the forecasted 0,2%m/m and previous -0,2%m/m) for March became the main events of Wednesday.

The inflation data in Germany did not have any impact on the quotations. In March, the Consumer Price index remained at + 0.8% m/m and + 0.3% y/y. The growth of stock indices caused the euro sales. The pair euro/dollar decreased.

The UK inflation positive report for March supported the positive trend in the Bonds Market. The yields differential on government bonds (the United States and the United Kingdom) have been reducing for the last three trading days. This news increased the attractiveness of the British assets. However the trades on the pair pound/dollar closed with a decrease.

The 10-year government bonds yield (the US and Japanese) expanded which increased the attractiveness of the US assets providing support for the dollar in the pair USD/JPY. This pair showed a growth.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The FED will hold its regular meeting on the monetary policy in late April. The more positive releases we get, the more chances we have that the monetary authorities will seriously talk about the rising interest rates in the medium term. On the other hand, the Eurozone revealed Industrial Production report which came out worse than expected: -0.8% m/m vs. the forecast of -0.7% m/m. Patrick Harker (the Philadelphia Fed Governor) did not exclude that the rates would be raised three times this year.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.1260 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The positive UK statistics supported the pound. The inflation unexpectedly accelerated to + 0.4% m/m and + 0.5% y/y vs. the forecast of + 0.3% and + 0.4% respectively. The commodity market dynamics also played into the bulls’ hands: oil and metals were in steady demand. Then the pair GBP/USD decreased amid the dollar’s strengthening.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.4160 and 1.4080.



Yen

General overview

There were two factors that had pressured the yen: the yen could not resist the growth of Nikkei, and secondly, it fell after Japanese Ministry of Finance comments regarding the possible measures launching aimed at limiting the growth of the national currency.

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 109.80 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 110.60 will be opened after this breakthrough.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

15.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar recovered against the most of its opponents. The positive Trade Balance in China heated the interest in the risky assets, mainly in the US currency. The USA published the Inflation data: 0,1%m/m against the forecasted 0,2%m/m. The Initial Jobless Claims showed 253К against the forecast of 270К.

The government bonds yields differential (the United States and Germany) expanded in the bonds market. The Eurozone published the inflation data for March: CPI came in at + 1.2% m/m, that coincided with the forecast. The pair euro/dollar was trading in a flat after a decrease.

The Bank of England kept its monetary policy unchanged. The UK 10-year government bonds yield decreased which reduced the attractiveness of the British assets. The pair GBP/USD closed the trades with a decrease.

The interest in the yen faded amid the demand for the risky assets. A further verbal intervention made by the Bank of Japan, the regulator again hinted at the possible expansion of its economic measures. However by the end of the trades the dollar/yen decreased.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The aggressive Fed statements as well as China positive export statistics supported the interest in the US currency. At the same time the euro fell amid the positive USA macroeconomic data and the negative statistics of the Eurozone. The Industrial Production in the region fell by 0.8% in February against a growth by 1.9% in January.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.1260, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The GBPUSD started a correction after three days of an impressive growth. The Bank of England published its minutes and announced the interest rate decision (the rate was left at the same level). Brexit theme due to its uncertainty continued to pressure the currency.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4080, the next one is at 1.4000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4240.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target is 1.4080. If the price falls it will get to 1.4240.



Yen

General overview

Haruhiko Kuroda’s comments (the Bank of Japan Governor) restrained the growth of the yen. According to Haruhiko Kuroda the Central Bank is ready to soften the monetary policy if needed, having many stimulus instruments to achieve the 2% inflation target.

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 109.00 and 108.20.



Franc

General overview

The dollar significantly rose against the Swiss franc amid the stock indices strengthening and the increased interest in the risky assets. The weaker-than-expected data on US retail sales was not able to change investors’ sentiment.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9660, the next one is at 0.9580. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9850.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

18.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The market volatility decreased before the summit in Doha, its results may impact the risk assets. In addition, the US currency got under pressure after the Fed comments and the weak inflation data from the US. According to D. Lockhart (Chief Executive Officer of the Fed of Atlanta) he would not vote for a rate hike in April, supporting a cautious approach to the monetary policy tightening due to low consumer spending. By the end of the trades the market volatility increased.

The United States published Industrial Production volume for March. The index came in at the level of -0,6% m/m (the previous value was -0.50% m/m, the forecast was -0.60% m/m) and the Consumer Sentiment index (from the University of Michigan) for April. The index showed 89.7 (the previous value was 91.0, the forecast was 92.3).

The Euro area inflation data had no significant effect on the EUR/USD (the index reached the zero value after falling by 0.1% y/y). The Euro zone published Trade Balance for February. The index showed 19.0 billion euro, the previous value was 20.0 billions. The pair euro/dollar showed a growth.

Bank of England did not bring any surprises, leaving the rate unchanged at the level of 0,5%. The Bank pointed to the risks related to the Brexit. The pound remained calm to the regulator’s statements. By the end of the trades the pair pound/dollar sharply increased.

The weak US retail sales, PPI and CPI reports disappointed investors. The US and Japanese government bond yields decreased which reduced the attractiveness of the US assets. The pair dollar/yen decreased by the end of the trades.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The 10-year government bonds yield in Germany grew, which increased the attractiveness of the European assets. Traders expect any substantial statements from the ECB on Thursday April 21st, which is likely to confirm that the recent announced monetary policy easing measures will be effective during the inflation growth.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1260 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The pound fell when the IMF changed the forecast of UK GDP for the current year from 2.2% to 1.9%. The IMF again reminded about the consequences of London Brexit which continue to pressure the market. The strong economic reports could not support the pound: the CPI accelerated to 0.5% - this is the highest level in the past 15 months, the Core Inflation grew from 1.2% to 1.5%. Only by the end of the trades the pound strengthened amid the dollar’s weakness.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4160, the next one is at 1.4080. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4320.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the growth towards 1.4240. We do not exclude the falls to 1.4160.



Yen

General overview

The weak USA inflation report slightly weakened the JPY/USD. In Japan the Industrial Production decreased by 5.2%. This news supported the dollar. However the pair decreased amid the USA weak statistics.

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break below 108.20 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 107.40 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Franc

General overview

The USD/CHF remained at the same place. Earlier the dollar stabilized against the majors when D. Lockhart (Chief Executive Officer of the Fed of Atlanta) stated that the GBP data was disappointing. Still they forecast the GBP will show a growth at around 2%.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9660, the next one is at 0.9580. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9850.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

19.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar weakened amid the risk aversion in the stock markets. The interest in the safe assets grew amid the fall of oil prices. The oil prices fell after negative results of the oil exporters' meeting in Doha. The weaker-than-expected data from the US pressured the dollar as well. The USA Industrial Production fell by 0.6% against the expected 0.1%, Capacity Utilization fell to 74.8% from 75.4%, and the preliminary Consumer Confidence index for April (Reuters/Michigan) fell to 89.7 against the forecast of 92.

The fall of the risk appetite supported the euro as a funding currency. The growth slowdown of the Chinese GDP and the weak economic data from the United States cooled-down the interest in the risky assets. The main factors that caused the dollar fall were: China economic growth decrease to its lowest level and moderately negative data on the US inflation. The pair EUR/USD strengthened.

Traders took profit and closed their orders in oil contracts that caused a technical correction to the psychological level of $ 40 per barrel. Low energy prices n traditionally had a negative impact on the British currency. Then the oil price increased and the pair GBP/USD closed the trades with a growth.

On Monday, William Dudley (the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York) said that the US labor market steadily recovered and the Central Bank would gradually and cautiously continue normalizing the interest rates. There were negative reports on Inflation, Retail Sales and Industrial Production last week. These factors also played into the bears’ hands in the pair USD/JPY. After a gap downward the USD/JPY grew by the end of the trades.




Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Even though the market does not expect any sensation from the ECB meeting on April 21st, it could have a great impact on the EUR/USD. According to Mario Draghi the weakness of emerging markets, uncertain prospects of oil and geopolitical risks hamper European HICP and push the ECB to take action.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.1260, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The pound fell on Monday amid bad news from Doha and deepening fears regarding Brexit. The official campaign for the referendum began last Friday. The two sides are now making efforts to convince the public about the merits of their point of view. According to George Osborne (the UK Finance Minister) the growth of Britain economy will be significantly reduced if the country leaves the EU.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4240, the next one is at 1.4160. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4400.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.4320 and 1.4400.



Yen

General overview

By the end of the trades the pair dollar/yen increased. It should be noted that the demand for the safe-heaven yen jumped to near 18-month high against the dollar, as oil prices collapsed when the largest oil producers failed to reach an agreement. The yen generally strengthened since the beginning of the year, as investors' concerns about the policy of negative interest rates in Japan and Europe led to an increase in demand for safe assets.

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The upward movement potential target is 109.00. If the price falls it will get to 108.20.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

20.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The recent risk aversion in the Forex market was caused by the prices collapse whi. The news that exporters did not come to an agreement in Doha to freeze production at January levels disappointed the energy market. Later the situation was fundamentally changed. Traders’ sentiment was improved by the aggressive correction of the “black gold”, together with the positive comments from the Fed (the regulator was confident that the inflation would return to the target level).

Consumer Spending reports in the United States did not allow us to expect a strong data on the building permits volume. Against the background of a low base from December to February (decreased by 9.19%) the index is expected to display growth within the median forecasts at the level of 1,200M. However the data came in at the level of 1,086M.

Germany and Eurozone published Economic Sentiment for April. Economic Sentiment in Germany came in at 11.2 with the forecast of 8.0. The index in Eurozone came in at 21.5 with the expectations of 13.9. The pair EUR/USD finished the day with a growth.

The UK 10-year government bonds yield grew in the bonds market which increased the attractiveness of the British assets. The pair pound/dollar showed a growth.

Kuroda (the BoJ Governor) in his interview to Wall Street Journal defended the negative interest rates. According to him the Regulator will low the long-term interest rates by 20 basis points. He also hinted that the Bank of Japan might cut the interest rates further. The pair dollar/yen fell by the end of the trades.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The euro grew amid the risk aversion. Now the euro dynamics depends rather on the market sentiment than on European economic statistics and senior European officials’ comments.

The first support lies at 1.1350 and then at 1.1260. The first resistance stands at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1550.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1350 and 1.1260.



Pound

General overview

The pound may remain volatile as the possibility of a rate hike was reduced by the Bank of England. While taking a decision on the interest rates last week, the English regulator also discussed the risks for the country economy in case of Brexit. According to M. Carney speech on Tuesday the impact of Brexit would not be helpful and it would make a financing of the payment balance more costly.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.4400 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.4480.



Yen

General overview

After a strong recovery from 17-month low the pair returned into a narrow range. The US published Building Permits (the index came in at 1.086M, the forecast was 1,200M) and Housing Starts data (the index came in at 1.089M, the forecast was 1.170M).

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 108.20 breakthrough down the way to the support 107.40 will be opened.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

21.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar was under pressure after the weak US statistics publication. In March, Building Permits showed 1.086M vs. the forecast of 1.200M and the previous value 1.177M. Housing Starts index also disappointed the market, falling to 1.089M from 1.194M. The following data supported the US currency: Existing Home Sales showed 5.33M with the forecast of 5.30M.

This week macroeconomic statistics reduced the US and Germany government bonds yield differential, which played into the euro bulls’ hands. ZEW index for April reached the maximum level over the past three months amid decreasing fears about the reduction of Chinese GDP. By the end of the trades the pair EUR/USD decreased.

Claimant Count Change for March in the UK grew to 6,7K while the Unemployment Rate remained around 5.1% in February. Average Earnings excluding Bonus for February remained at 2.2%, Average Earnings including Bonus including bonuses fell to 1.8% from 2.1%. The number of unemployed increased by 21 000 people reaching 1.7M. Total wages and salaries in the private sector also slowed down to 1.9%, while the monthly rate fell by 0.9% (the lowest level since July 2014). The pair GBP/USD was trading in a flat.

On the one hand, the weak macroeconomic statistics from the US and the "bullish" sentiment in the commodity market played against the dollar. On the other hand, the "risk appetite" was preserved, that was a negative factor for the yen as a funding currency. The USD / JPY strengthened by the end of the trades.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

In Germany, the Producer Price index was in a flat from February to March. Still the index fell by 3.1% y/y (the strongest drop since January 2010). Economists expected a growth of 0.1% m/m, and a decline of 2.9% y/y. According to the latest reports, the upward pressure on consumer prices from the manufacturers is limited. The consumer climate in 28 EU countries decreased by 3.2 points from 12,2 points in December 2015 to 9 points in March 2016.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.1260, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The GBP/USD formed a consolidation. Earlier the pair grew confidently amid the oil prices gain and the interest in risky assets. The number of Brexit opponents recently declined. Probably, the recent government warnings about the enormous impact of the country exit from the European Union had a positive effect on the British people.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target is 1.4400. If the price falls it will get to 1.4320.



Yen

General overview

The absence of interest in buying the yen became the driver of an upward correction. The correction turned out to be weak amid the risky assets popularity. A limited growth pointed to the weak position of the US currency, which remained under the pressure.

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 109.80 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 110.60 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

22.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The ECB meeting and M. Draghi press-conference became the main events of Thursday. The regulator left the rate unchanged at 0%. According to Draghi he does not exclude a transfer to the negative rates as well. The soft policy will continue until the inflation reaches 2%.

The pound fell against the US dollar after the disappointing retail sales release, that undermined the optimism about the strength of the British economy. The total volume of retail sales for March was expected with a decrease by 0.1%, but it fell even lower to 1.3%.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index for April decreased and showed -1.6. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 247K against the forecast of 263K.

The yen slightly rose even against the background of weaker-than-expected Trade Balance release. The Balance (taking into account seasonal correction) amounted 755,0B against the expectations of 834,6B. Exports grew from -4.0% y / y to -6.8% y / y, imports grew from -14.2% y / y to 14.9% y / y. Kuroda’s statements regarding further policy easing if necessary supported the yen as well.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The ECB meeting and M. Draghi press-conference were the focus of our attention yesterday. The regulator left the rates unchanged. The euro strengthened, which had a negative impact on exporters. Manufacturing PMI declined, and Net Exports rose by 25.2B which is by 6.66% less than the year before.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the mark of 1.1260, it might continue the downward movement. The potential target is 1.1150. In the alternative scenario, we will see a move to 1.1500.



Pound

General overview

The UK government bonds yield reduced in the Bonds market which decreased the attractiveness of the British assets. The UK retail sales fell by 1.3% in March after falling by 0.5% in February. Analysts expected a decrease of 0.1%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We expect a decrease towards the level of 1.4160. If the pair gets below the Cloud and consolidates there we will see a deeper move towards 1.4000.



Yen

General overview

Merchandise Trade Balance showed 348.4B in the first quarter. The same index showed a negative balance of 1.379T in 2015. The volume of orders for equipment component continued to show a negative dynamics in March. The index showed a decline of 21.2% y / y. The debt market reacted to these reports with the differential expansion of US and Japanese government bonds yields.

The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.80, the next one is at 110.60.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair consolidates above 109.80 it may go higher to 110.60. Otherwise, the pair will decrease to 108.00.



Franc

General overview

In March, the Trade Surplus amounted 2.163M compared with the previous data of 4.022M. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 247K against the forecast of 263K.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9700, the next one is at 0.9650. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9800.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the pair consolidates above 0.9750 it may go higher to 0.9800. Otherwise, the pair will decrease to 0.9650.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

25.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

Last Friday the dollar rose against major currencies to weekly highs amid the disappointing statistics in the Eurozone. The United States published Manufacturing PMI for April. The index came in at 50.8, the forecast was 52.0.

According to Markit research Group PMI composite index in the Euro zone fell to 53.0 in April from 53.1 in March. The same index in Germany rose to 51.9 in April from 50.7 in the previous month, while Service PMI fell to 54.6 from 55.1.

The speculations that the Bank of Japan may introduce new stimulus measures at the next meeting on April 27-28 continued to press the yen. The Central Bank may extend the program of buying assets or promote the interest rates even further into a negative territory.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Manufacturing PMI in Germany rose more than expected last month. The index showed 51.9 compared with 50.7 in the previous month. Experts expected the index to grow to 51.0.

The first support lies at 1.1150 and then at 1.1050. The first resistance stands at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1350.

We see a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be continued till the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair broke through the first target, the level of 1.1260 and kept going down. We believe the south movement will be continued. The potential target is 1.1150. As a correction we could see a return to 1.1260.



Pound

General overview

The British news background was empty last Friday. The market paid attention to the "black gold" dynamics where the price showed a correction. Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count was published. The report again showed the reduction of the drilling rigs in the United States. The index showed 343 versus the previous figure of 351.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4320, the next one is at 1.4240. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4400, the next one is at 1.4480.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The growth will be continued while the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The price made new attempts to grow. If the price consolidates above 1.4400 the growth will be continued to 1.4480. We will sell if the price gets below 1.4240.



Yen

General overview

The US and Japanese government bonds yields differential expanded which increased the attractiveness of the US assets. The Bank of Japan plans to introduce negative interest rates on some loans.

The price is finding the first support at 111.40, the next one is at 110.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 112.20, the next one is at 113.00.

The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. Both lines form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be continued until the price gets below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is heading towards the resistance of 112.20. Still the USD/JPY may turn down to correct. The correction targets are 111.40 and 110.60.



Franc

General overview

The dollar rose against the Swiss franc at the end of the week. The economic calendar was empty and the market paid attention to the news from the USA. In the US, Manufacturing PMI decreased. The index showed 50.8 with the forecast of 52.0.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9700. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9800, the next one is at 0.9850.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be continued while the price stays above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is growing to 0.9900. We expect a correction to 0.9750.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

26.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The market started the week rather good. Trading was in the absence of any drivers. The United States published New Home Sales report in March (the previous value was 512K; the forecast was 527K). The data came in at the level of 511K.

Germany published Business Climate for April (106.6 versus the forecast of 107.0). The index low forecast is due to its close correlation with the composite PMI. Which prevented a better forecast for Business climate, taking into account the negative dynamics of the latter. However the pair EUR/USD increased.

The pair GBP/USD started the week with a growth. Oil prices successfully completed the previous trading week in the "green zone", despite Doha summit failure. The oil market bullish sentiment had a positive impact on the British currency (as expected). In spite of the oil prices decrease the GBP/USD grew.

The USDJPY rallied amid a sharp collapse of the yen in response to the news from the Bank of Japan. According to the market rumors the regulator is considering the possibility of issuing loans with a negative rate. These conversations provoked the Japanese currency sell-off. Nevertheless, as a result the USD/JPY fell.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The fact that the ECB left the interest rates unchanged had an impact on the euro. The euro fell in response to this news. The 10-year German government bonds yield decreased in the Bonds Market. Still the pair EUR/USD could slightly strengthen in the beginning of the week. The Fed meeting will be the focus of our attention this week.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward bounce potential targets are 1.1260 and 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The sterling grew after Obama’s speech (the US President). According to Barack Obama the UK will get in the "end of line" concerning the trade agreement with the United States if the country leaves the EU alliance. The UK GDP report for the first quarter is the main event in the country for this week. The report is to be published on Wednesday. The forecast is 0.4%, the previous value was 0.6%.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4650.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.4560, the next one is 1.4640.



Yen

General overview

The dollar declined against the yen on Monday leaving three-week highs. The market is waiting for the Fed meeting and BoJ meeting.

The price is finding the first support at 110.60, the next one is at 109.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 111.40, the next one is at 112.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the support levels of 110.60. We do not exclude the growth to 111.40 and 112.20.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

27.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

Yesterday the economic calendar was full of American releases. Durable Goods Orders report for March was published the first (0.8% vs forecast 1.8%). Consumer Confidence for April came in at 94.2 (the previous value was 94.2, the forecast was 96.0). Traders expected to see a hint regarding the state of the economy before the Fed decision on Wednesday, which could have an impact on any further movement of the dollar. Meanwhile investors avoided opening new positions before the Fed meeting.

There was no important news in the Eurozone yesterday. After a strong growth the pair euro/dollar slightly decreased by the end of the trades.

The UK published Mortgage Approvals index for March (45.1K vs the forecast 46.0K). The pair pound/dollar showed a growth but by the end of the trades it slightly fell.

The interest in the safe assets triggered the buying of yen. The rumours that the BoJ won’t apply new soft measures supported the yen as well. We believe that the regulator will evaluate more carefully the effect of the running measures and will apply the new ones only in June. The pair dollar/yen strengthened.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

The euro strengthened amid the interest in the safe assets buying. The euro ignored the IFO release and continued slowly growing. In the Bonds Market, the 10-year German government bonds yield rose which increased the attractiveness of the European assets.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 1.1260 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.1150 will be opened.



Pound

General overview

In the Bonds Market the 10-year government bonds yield differential (the US and the UK) continued to decline which increased the attractiveness of the British assets. In addition, the release of negative macroeconomic data from the United States contributed to a further decrease of the differential.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4650.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.4670 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4760 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen

General overview

The Bonds Market sent "bullish signals": the US and Japanese securities yield differential expanded again which became a bullish factor for the US currency. The oil market growth can become the driver for the dollar to grow.

The price is finding the first support at 110.60, the next one is at 109.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 111.40, the next one is at 112.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 112.20 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 113.00.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

28.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The dollar remained stable to other majors on Wednesday preparing for the final Federal Reserve System political statements. Investors focused on the outcome of the political meeting waiting for any hints regarding the interest rates change in June. The Fed kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.5%.

Consumer Confidence in Germany significantly improved (9.7 versus the previous 9.4). Consumers believe that the German economy will recover in the coming months and expect its moderate recovery. The pair euro/dollar slightly strengthened.

The pound stopped the growth when the market found out that the UK economy had grown by 0.4%, in line with economists' expectations, but slowed to 0.6% in the previous quarter. The UK economic growth in the first quarter was 2.1%, (on an annual terms) similar to the previous quarter and slightly higher than the expected 2.0%. The pair pound/dollar closed the trades with a decrease.

The pair dollar/yen increased by end of the trades.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

In the bond market the government bonds yield differential (the US and Germany) decreased, which was a "bullish" factor for the euro. The commodity market showed an upward trend that traditionally had a negative impact on the dollar as commodity prices are in the US currency. The US Fed meeting was the focus of the market attention.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the fall towards 1.1260 further on we expect a downward movement to 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

The UK Gross Domestic Product rose up by 0.4%, as expected. The UK economy showed a growth of 0.6%. In the Bonds Market, the 10-year UK government bonds yield increased which slightly supported the demand for the pound.

The price is finding the first support at 1.4480, the next one is at 1.4400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4650.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.4480 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.4400.



Yen

General overview

All Industry Activity Index (m / m) decreased for the last month (-1.2% vs. the forecast of -1.3%). These data were revised downward to 2.0%. Experts expected the index to decline to 1.3% over the past month. The trading activity was low as traders waited for the Fed and the Bank of Japan meeting outcome.

The price is finding the first support at 110.60, the next one is at 109.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 111.40, the next one is at 112.20.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 111.40 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 112.20 will be opened after this breakthrough.



*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis.

29.04.2016

Fundamental analysis

The Eurozone published the inflation report for Germany (0,2%) and Economic Sentiment Indicator (103,9). In addition, Germany published Unemployment Rate which remained unchanged at 6.2% (in line with the forecasts). Unemployment Change showed -16K.

The UK published Nationwide Housing Prices for April (on a monthly and annual basis). The index showed 0.2% m/m after the previous 0.8% m/m.

The US GDP for the 1st quarter became the main event of the day (the 1st assessment). The index came in at 0.5%, the forecast was 0.7% vs. 1.4% in the 4th quarter. Initial Jobless Claims showed 257K (the previous value was 247K, the forecast was 252K).

The Bank of Japan did not change its monetary policy and did not extend the stimulus rate. The Central Bank is still focused on the increase in the monetary base by 80 trillion yen per year, the deposit rate remained unchanged at - 0.1%.



Technical analysis

Euro

General overview

Unemployment Change in Germany showed -16K, the previous value was -3K. Experts had expected a growth by 4K. Unemployment rate remained at the same level of 6,2%, which corresponded to the forecasts.

The first support lies at 1.1260 and then at 1.1150. The first resistance stands at 1.1350, the next one is at 1.1450.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1260 soon. The next target will be 1.1150.



Pound

General overview

Nationwide Housing Prices in the UK amounted to 0,2% compared with 0,8% in the previous month. Experts had expected a growth by 0,4%. The US published the GDP report for April. The data came in at the level of 0,5% q/q (the previous value was 1,4% q/q, the forecast was 0,7% q/q).

The price is finding the first support at 1.4560, the next one is at 1.4480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4670, the next one is at 1.4760.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.4670 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4760 will be opened after this breakthrough.



Yen

General overview

The yen grew when the Bank of Japan did not change the interest rates, as expected. The regulator decided not to apply any further negative interest rates. Industrial Production for March rose by 3.6% on monthly basis, while we expected a growth by 2.9%. Retail Sales fell by 1.1% year on year, although a drop of 1.5 % was expected.

The price is finding the first support at 108.20, the next one is at 107.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.80.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 107.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 106.60.



Franc

General overview

The USA GDP for the 1st quarter was the main event of Thursday. The release came in at the level of 0,5% q/q (the forecast was 0,7% q/q, the previous value was 1,4% q/q). Initial Jobless Claims number was the focus of our attention as well. The data came in at the level of 257K (the forecast was 260K the previous value was 247K).

The first support lies at 0.9660 and then at 0.9580. The first resistance stands at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement forming a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9580. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9500.




*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman